2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For Aug. 8

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on August 8, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Monday, Aug. 8

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Pittsburgh Pirates At Arizona Diamondbacks

Betting against Zac Gallen has not been good to me this year, so take this one in with a skeptical eye. But I just have a really hard time getting the Diamondbacks to this big of favorites when we see merely an above-average starter here facing a bullpen game from the Pirates. I say above average because I don’t think Gallen’s 3.31 ERA is validated by his peripherals at all. In fact, his 26.4% called strike+whiff rate represents a career low. Without any changes to his pitch mix, movement, or velocity, I’m not seeing how he’s suddenly elite.

And the bullpen game means there’s only so bad the opposing pitching can be. Bullpens are so good nowadays that even Pittsburgh’s bottom-five unit has produced around a 4.4 ERA level. Given these offenses are not that far apart — Arizona has a 92 wRC+ to Pittsburgh’s 84 — I think the Diamondbacks should be more like -180 favorites rather than around -250.

Current best price: Pirates

New York Yankees At Seattle Mariners

I also feel like backing the Yankees has produced a poor ROI for me, and I’m fading an overnight market move here. Enough steam came in on Seattle to push the Yankees into playable range for me at -105, though I think -110 is also worth some consideration.

This wager just comes down to handicapping the two offenses, as the starting pitching and bullpens should be a wash here. The Yankees have the best offense in baseball this year. Granted, they’re missing Anthony Rizzo and Giancarlo Stanton, but they have the corner/DH type bats to replace those sluggers. I’m less certain of the Mariners without Julio Rodriguez, with a lineup that still features Adam Frazier and potentially Jared Kelenic. Logan Gilbert also should match up poorly with the Yankees given he’s so fastball/slider heavy (79% of his pitches), with the Yanks ranking top three against both offerings.

Current best price: Yankees

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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