The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.
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MLB Picks For Tuesday, Aug. 2
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Milwaukee Brewers At Pittsburgh Pirates
It should be obvious to anyone who has followed baseball even remotely for the past couple of years that Corbin Burnes versus the Pirates offense is a laughable mismatch. Not only have the Pirates put up the third-worst wRC+ against right-handed pitching (84), but they also have the worst numbers of any team against cutters, Burnes’ primary weapon. By quite a margin, too. Furthermore, Ke’Bryan Hayes may miss the game injured. The Pirates have few enough capable players as it is, so they can ill afford to lose one of the good ones.
What some readers may find more surprising: Bryse Wilson has actually pitched fairly decently of late. Four starts ago, he switched to a more sinker-heavy approach. The results have paid off with a 3.27 ERA/3.8 FIP/4.3 xFIP. Those numbers may not look super exciting, but they’re a massive jump for a guy with a career 5.8 ERA across 172 innings.
You can go for under 8 or 7.5 here depending on whether you want to pay some juice. I opted for the latter.
Current best price: Under
LA Dodgers At San Francisco Giants
The Dodgers came through yesterday and I’m right back on them here looking to once again fade this injured Giants lineup. I’m backing Alex Wood much more often than fading him, but Tyler Anderson has a very similar talent level to Wood, leaning more toward stronger contact management than fielding independent excellence. Luckily, he has a solid defense backing him, while Wood will be even worse off than normal as many of these Giants platoon bats are mediocre to bad in the field. Bringing back the same point from yesterday, the Giants are still missing Evan Longoria, Brandon Crawford, Thairo Estrada and Joc Pederson.
This game represents a solid live betting opportunity should the game be close heading to the late innings as the Dodgers should have a bullpen edge and the Giants’ platoon bats will lose some of their potency.
Current best price: Dodgers
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
MLB Sportsbook Promos
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All you have to do is click on the link in the banners below and type in the promo code provided (if necessary), register a new account with the sportsbook, and you’re on your way to getting risk-free bets, odds boosts and/or deposit matches, depending on which sportsbook and state you reside in.