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MLB Picks For Tuesday, Aug. 9
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Pittsburgh Pirates At Arizona Diamondbacks
With the season meaningfully over, the Diamondbacks have called up Tommy Henry to see if he can provide MLB-quality innings for the franchise going forward. I have serious doubts he can do so, when looking over his MiLB record. A 4.64 FIP and 5.17 xFIP in 100-plus innings of Triple A says Henry is simply not an MLB starter right now. The lefty did not exactly run roughshod over Double A the year before, posting a 5.29 FIP and 4.24 xFIP. Despite prospect watchers apparently preferring Henry to Zach Thompson, it seems like Thompson is the better pitcher right now. Sure, Thompson isn’t good, but he projects above replacement level and has performed so thus far in MLB with a 4.69 SIERA.
Henry’s approach also leaves something to be desired as he threw his heater more than 60% of the time in his MLB debut. That makes life easy on even the weak-hitting Pirates offense. Any MLB hitter can connect with a fastball, generally, but especially one coming at them in the low 90s. Look no further than the Pirates’ -0.31 pval/100 against fastballs. That would rank in the middle of the pack against most other pitches.
The Pirates competed well enough in yesterday’s loss that I felt fine getting +210 on them, and I think the market has too much confidence in Arizona again.
Current best price: Pirates
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
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