2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For July 11

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on July 11, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Monday, July 11

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Boston Red Sox At Tampa Bay Rays

Brayan Bello will draw his second MLB start for the Red Sox, and while he’s a pretty promising prospect, I think he looks like a below-average arm right now. His debut (against these same Rays) did not go very well as he tallied more walks (3) than Ks (2). The Rays will start solid, league-average arm Josh Fleming. Neither of these guys excite, and with one roughly average offense and one elite one here, I think we could see some runs. What makes me particularly intrigued with the over is that both bullpens look a bit zapped, especially that of the Red Sox. If either primary pitcher finds trouble, they may be asked to pitch through it, so fires may not be put out as easily as usual. Note that key bat Wander Franco will miss this one, though.

Watch for the availability of Rafael Devers as he would significantly boost Boston’s offense. I think there’s a better than 50/50 shot he goes. Some right tail potential exists here if poor middle relievers are asked to soak up some innings or if starters aren’t pulled with traffic on the bases. I took some over 9.5 alternate as well.

Current best price: Over

San Diego Padres At Colorado Rockies

Again, injuries cloud the picture here. This time, the Rockies offense looks like a major question mark. It’s a group I’ve backed all year, particularly against lefties, but key lefty mashers Kris Bryant and CJ Cron look questionable at best here. Bryant came out of the last game injured and Cron has missed a couple of games with a wrist that he said a day ago “doesn’t feel great.” Without them, I have huge concerns about the quality of the bats here. And Jose Urena looks like one of the worst pitchers in the majors. I have no idea how he keeps getting starts since he hasn’t posted an ERA south of 5 since 2018. Some of the projections have him with an ERA above 7 which is not something you see very often.

Normally, I’m loathe to take a big favorite in Coors as the high-run environment distorts things and any pitcher, not matter how good, is vulnerable. But the Padres just have such massive edges both on the mound and at the plate if Cron and Bryant sit.

Current best price: Padres

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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