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MLB Picks For Monday, July 11
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Boston Red Sox At Tampa Bay Rays
Brayan Bello will draw his second MLB start for the Red Sox, and while he’s a pretty promising prospect, I think he looks like a below-average arm right now. His debut (against these same Rays) did not go very well as he tallied more walks (3) than Ks (2). The Rays will start solid, league-average arm Josh Fleming. Neither of these guys excite, and with one roughly average offense and one elite one here, I think we could see some runs. What makes me particularly intrigued with the over is that both bullpens look a bit zapped, especially that of the Red Sox. If either primary pitcher finds trouble, they may be asked to pitch through it, so fires may not be put out as easily as usual. Note that key bat Wander Franco will miss this one, though.
Watch for the availability of Rafael Devers as he would significantly boost Boston’s offense. I think there’s a better than 50/50 shot he goes. Some right tail potential exists here if poor middle relievers are asked to soak up some innings or if starters aren’t pulled with traffic on the bases. I took some over 9.5 alternate as well.
Current best price: Over
San Diego Padres At Colorado Rockies
Again, injuries cloud the picture here. This time, the Rockies offense looks like a major question mark. It’s a group I’ve backed all year, particularly against lefties, but key lefty mashers Kris Bryant and CJ Cron look questionable at best here. Bryant came out of the last game injured and Cron has missed a couple of games with a wrist that he said a day ago “doesn’t feel great.” Without them, I have huge concerns about the quality of the bats here. And Jose Urena looks like one of the worst pitchers in the majors. I have no idea how he keeps getting starts since he hasn’t posted an ERA south of 5 since 2018. Some of the projections have him with an ERA above 7 which is not something you see very often.
Normally, I’m loathe to take a big favorite in Coors as the high-run environment distorts things and any pitcher, not matter how good, is vulnerable. But the Padres just have such massive edges both on the mound and at the plate if Cron and Bryant sit.
Current best price: Padres
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
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