The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Monday, Aug. 29
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San Diego Padres At San Francisco Giants
Not sure I’ve won a Carlos Rodon fade this year but the market is certainly with me on this one. He’s been incredible, no doubt, and I have all the respect in the world for him, but I do think the Giants were a bit overpriced in the overnight markets. They’re at an offense, bullpen and defense deficit here. And I think the Padres’ offensive advantage is a little understated by the numbers as Juan Soto just returned to the lineup. Mike Clevinger hasn’t enjoyed the best season thus far, but he has handily beaten his peripherals across more than 600 career innings. I’m optimistic he’ll pitch better going forward given his excellent track record, and if he’s closer to a 3.5 ERA pitcher than the 4+ that the computers expect, then this line was just too high. He’s still getting normal rates of chases and first strikes, which is encouraging.
Unfortunately, I think the value has been bet out of this number, but look to see if you can find +115 or better closer to close.
Current best price: Padres
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
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