The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.
Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. NBA, MLB, golf and more!
MLB Picks For Sunday, May 29
For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.
Baltimore Orioles At Boston Red Sox
Nick Pivetta has cleaned it up considerably after an incredibly ugly start. He now sports a 3.89 SIERA and has nudged his called strike+whiff% back in line with last year, when he had solid production. Still, his contact management has stunk as seen in his 4.6 xERA and I find myself wondering if he can keep this up still throwing at a fastball velocity (93.3) at which he has not been good. Bruce Zimmermann projects to be right there with him and his fly ball approach should match up decently against the fly-heavy Red Sox. This is a thin edge I’d play down to +160, a theme in today’s plays.
Current best price: Orioles
Cleveland Guardians At Detroit Tigers
I have never been a big Triston McKenzie believer as his intrigue mainly stems from a handful of starts in the second half of last season. He allows too much high-value contact on his 92 mph heater. On the bright side, he leans heavily to fly balls, so the dead baseball and Detroit’s park should help him quite a bit here. He’s miles better than Elvin Rodriguez, who simply isn’t an MLB arm. Rodriguez has gotten just 5.8% swinging strikes in a limited sample while walking almost six batters per nine. More worrying, his minor league walk rates stunk and support the idea that he has poor control. Add in Detroit’s bottom-of-the-table offense and I have Guardians closer to -170.
Current best prices: Guardians
Milwaukee Brewers At St. Louis Cardinals
Corbin Burnes has been crushing it so far once again and leads the markets for NL Cy Young after winning last year. The only thing remotely holding him down has been a bloated home run rate. He has allowed 1.25 per nine this year after 0.3 and 0.38 the previous two seasons. A date with the Cardinals, who have below-average power against right-handed pitchers (.134 ISO, 20th in MLB) in an expansive Busch Stadium should suit him nicely. While I don’t love this Brewers offense, a right-handed ground-baller in Miles Mikolas should be exactly the sort of pitcher against whom they give their best. I like this play to -140.
Current best price: Brewers
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
MLB Sportsbook Promos
If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.
All you have to do is click on the link in the banners below and type in the promo code provided (if necessary), register a new account with the sportsbook, and you’re on your way to getting risk-free bets, odds boosts and/or deposit matches, depending on which sportsbook and state you reside in.