2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 22

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 22, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

Free Pick’Em Contests! Compete for prizes every day by entering our free betting games. NFL, MLB, golf and more!

MLB Picks For Wednesday, June 22

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Washington Nationals At Baltimore Orioles

You won’t find me betting too many Patrick Corbin starts. But I think the market is just dinging him too much at this point for a 6.59 ERA he simply hasn’t deserved. He has been very unlucky with a .363 BABIP (career .313) and 59% LOB. Bottom line, I expect performance closer to his 4.47 SIERA. Tyler Wells has been on the opposite end of the luck spectrum with a 3.62 ERA but a 4.72 SIERA. These pitchers and offenses have similar talent levels, so I just can’t get behind the Orioles being this big of favorites.

Current best price: Nationals

Detroit Tigers At Boston Red Sox

I know there has been a vast difference in these offenses, but Detroit has a much better pitcher on the mound here. Tarik Skubal looks like a new man and potential ace after cleaning up his home run issues. He won’t have to face lefty killer Kike Hernandez either. The addition of uber-prospect Riley Greene also gives the Tigers offense a boost. He’s been scalding the ball so far with a .438 xwOBA and more walks than strikeouts. Maybe this is the time I finally win a bet fading Michael Wacha, who keeps posting a sub-3 ERA despite awful skills including a well below par 23.1 called strike+whiff%.

If you can get +120, it might be worth a small play, but I believe there isn’t much value left here after the sharps hammered the Tigers overnight.

Current best price: Tigers

New York Yankees At Tampa Bay Rays

I was all over Shane Baz’s first two starts. His mouthwatering MiLB numbers had me projecting him as an above average arm immediately, but now I’m not so sure. You can see where his command is lagging in his zone rate (43.5%), low called strike rate (13.7%) and monster barrel rate (20%). The scary part is his .211 BABIP looks ripe for upward regression especially considering the contact he’s allowing. I don’t think he’s quite as good as the projections believe and his offense has taken some hits lacking Wander Franco and now Manny Margot, an asset versus lefties. The Rays called up prospect Josh Lowe but he stunk in his first taste of MLB and Isaac Paredes might never hit three dingers in a game again.

Current best price: Yankees

Cleveland Guardians At Minnesota Twins

I’ve long held a lower opinion than the market on Triston McKenzie. While his extreme fly ball profile rates to give him a low BABIP, I have a hard time believing .216 is sustainable, especially when he’s allowing more than 38% hard contact as he is this year. The Twins don’t look like an especially friendly matchup for him as they have their full lineup out there and have tattooed fastballs at a top-10 rate — McKenzie throws his more than 60% of the time. Sonny Gray has done his usual great work with a 3.19 SIERA and 2.9 xERA, and the Twins have a better offense than the Guardians against right-handed pitching. I have them closer to -160.

Current best price: Twins

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

All you have to do is click on the link in the banners below and type in the promo code provided (if necessary), register a new account with the sportsbook, and you’re on your way to getting risk-free bets, odds boosts and/or deposit matches, depending on which sportsbook and state you reside in.

UP TO $1,250
On Caesars
Up to $1,250 On Caesars
+ get 1,000 Caesars Reward Credits 
+ also get 1,000 Tier Credits 
Redeem for free bets, hotel stays, & more!
Use Promo Code: LEGALFULL
No Sweat First Bet
Up to $1,000 No Sweat First Bet
Available on iOS, Android & Desktop
To Claim: Click Bet Now
Risk Free Bet
Exclusive Offer:
$100 Risk Free Bet
Use Promo Code: BETBONUS

Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah