2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 6

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 6, 2022 - Last Updated on June 21, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Monday, June 6

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Seattle Mariners At Houston Astros

Well, this is a frustrating write-up as I am stuck with the worst of it by a lot after betting Mariners last night. But, I am just not seeing what the market is seeing in Cristian Javier, I guess. Yes, he has been fantastic. He has a 2.41 ERA and estimators not much higher than that. But, I see a 25.4% called strike+whiff rate and I feel very nervous for his chances to sustain those sorts of numbers. He simply hasn’t been good at getting opposite-handed hitters out in his career with a .327 career wOBA allowed. The Mariners should bring six into their lineup today.

And while Robbie Ray has really struggled, and I was among the first on the fade train, he has not pitched as poorly as his 4.93 ERA or even particularly close. I don’t expect Cy Young production but something close to a 4 ERA seems reasonable, and Houston looks like a surprisingly decent matchup for him. They have been below league average against lefties, a surprising development, and they also hit it in the air a ton which favors Ray as an extreme fly baller. You can get a better price than I did by a lot here, just be aware you are on the other side of some serious steam.

Current best price: Mariners

Boston Red Sox At LA Angels

Unfortunately, another caveat up front on this one. I did not see that Taylor Ward, having a tremendous season leading off for the Angels, went on the IL yesterday/this morning. So, the value might be a little more thin than I thought here since that dilutes the Angels offense a chunk. That being said, I still bet it, so I’m posting it and we’ll see where the line goes later.

More than anything, I just don’t believe in Michael Wacha whatsoever. His SIERA (4.69) sits more than two full runs above his 2.43 ERA and he has not beaten his peripherals the past couple of years since changing his pitch mix to include more cutters. I don’t see anything close to this level continuing, and he has a massively fortunate .198 BABIP propping everything up. With a 23.3% called strike+whiff rate, I’m expecting him to regress hard at some point, and the Angels actually have a better full season wRC+ than the Red Sox do, though Boston has been hitting the tar out of the baseball of late.

Current best prices:

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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