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MLB Picks For Monday, June 6
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Seattle Mariners At Houston Astros
Well, this is a frustrating write-up as I am stuck with the worst of it by a lot after betting Mariners last night. But, I am just not seeing what the market is seeing in Cristian Javier, I guess. Yes, he has been fantastic. He has a 2.41 ERA and estimators not much higher than that. But, I see a 25.4% called strike+whiff rate and I feel very nervous for his chances to sustain those sorts of numbers. He simply hasn’t been good at getting opposite-handed hitters out in his career with a .327 career wOBA allowed. The Mariners should bring six into their lineup today.
And while Robbie Ray has really struggled, and I was among the first on the fade train, he has not pitched as poorly as his 4.93 ERA or even particularly close. I don’t expect Cy Young production but something close to a 4 ERA seems reasonable, and Houston looks like a surprisingly decent matchup for him. They have been below league average against lefties, a surprising development, and they also hit it in the air a ton which favors Ray as an extreme fly baller. You can get a better price than I did by a lot here, just be aware you are on the other side of some serious steam.
Current best price: Mariners
Boston Red Sox At LA Angels
Unfortunately, another caveat up front on this one. I did not see that Taylor Ward, having a tremendous season leading off for the Angels, went on the IL yesterday/this morning. So, the value might be a little more thin than I thought here since that dilutes the Angels offense a chunk. That being said, I still bet it, so I’m posting it and we’ll see where the line goes later.
More than anything, I just don’t believe in Michael Wacha whatsoever. His SIERA (4.69) sits more than two full runs above his 2.43 ERA and he has not beaten his peripherals the past couple of years since changing his pitch mix to include more cutters. I don’t see anything close to this level continuing, and he has a massively fortunate .198 BABIP propping everything up. With a 23.3% called strike+whiff rate, I’m expecting him to regress hard at some point, and the Angels actually have a better full season wRC+ than the Red Sox do, though Boston has been hitting the tar out of the baseball of late.
Current best prices:
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
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