2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 7

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 7, 2022 - Last Updated on June 21, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Tuesday, June 7

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Seattle Mariners At Houston Astros

I hate that I’m back in a position where I feel forced to bet on Chris Flexen, but here I find myself once again. I don’t have any confidence whatsoever in Flexen. My hopes for his ability to suppress the Astros offense pretty much center around the fact that baseball involves swinging sticks at little round balls that can go anywhere.

But I just can’t get buy the idea that Verlander is an uber-ace, the way the market has priced him. It’s just really hard to have an elite level of success with a below average called strike+whiff rate, and Verlander has that at 25.4%. He’s getting subpar levels of both swinging and called strikes. Without a track record of elite contact management — he has been average in this department over his career — I’m expecting at best around a mid-3s ERA for Verlander. The projections have started to come around and I just can’t get behind a pitcher like that laying a price like this. I got in at +218 but anything +200 or better seems good.

Current best price: Mariners

Philadelphia Phillies At Milwaukee Brewers

I’m still looking for spots to attack the Brewers when they face left-handed pitching. Their lineup projects as much better against right-handed pitching, and that has played out thus far with the team a dismal 28th in offense against southpaws at 82 wRC+. Ranger Suarez may not be the dominator he looked like last season but he’s still a solid league-average lefty who suppresses exit velocity and gets grounders in a home-run haven park.

On the other hand, the Phillies get a nice matchup here against 29-year-old call-up Jason Alexander (not that one). They match up well against him because of his extreme ground-ball tendency (the Phillies lift the ball more frequently than most teams) and have a lot of lefties in their own lineup. Alexander projects poorly against lefties throwing sinkers and sliders 80% of the time as he did in his debut.

Current best price: Phillies

LA Dodgers At Chicago White Sox

You don’t get too many chances to play the Dodgers at a price this “long,” but -119 qualifies when we are talking about a 100-plus win juggernaut. That’s because they are throwing swingman Mitch White, but this doesn’t look like the worst spot for a fastball/slider heavy righty against a right-leaning White Sox lineup. I think he can tread water and let his offense do the heavy lifting against Michael Kopech, whom I think the market vastly overrates. He hasn’t missed bats at a level commensurate with his stuff, and he gives out too many free passes (4.6 BB/9) which are supported by his subpar zone% and first-strike%. The Dodgers have a much stronger lineup than the White Sox’s still injured group missing Tim Anderson and Eloy Jimenez.

Current best price: Dodgers

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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