2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 5

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 5, 2022 - Last Updated on June 21, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Sunday, June 5

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

San Francisco Giants At Miami Marlins

Jakob Junis has taken a massive step forward this season with a drastic change to his pitch mix. He now throws his slider — his only positively valued pitch over his career — more than 50% of the time. He’s also firing his changeup more than 15% of the time, by far a career-high. It seems to be working as he’s now getting more grounders than ever, more chases than ever, and the best called strike+whiff rate of his career (30.3%!). The projections haven’t caught up, still pegging him as a below average arm, so there’s value on him until the market realizes he’s solid. A grounder-heavy Marlins lineup should present a favorable matchup for him as well.

Current best price: Giants

Chicago White Sox At Tampa Bay Rays

Ryan Yarbrough has done well to make himself into a solid innings eater, but he’s still leagues below Lucas Giolito, projecting for an ERA around 4. Giolito, despite losing half a tick on his heater, has been completely dominant this season with a 32.6% called strike+whiff. Once the .355 BABIP and 19.5% HR/FB come down, the 3.61 ERA will drop. And the White Sox have started to get some of their right-handed power back in the lineup with Luis Robert, Jose Abreu, Andrew Vaughn and now the surging Jake Burger in there.

Current best prices: White Sox

Boston Red Sox At Oakland Athletics

Frankie Montas has the best SIERA (3.01) and xFIP (2.86) of his career. But, without a gain in called strike+whiff% — it has actually dropped from 29.2% to 27% — I’m skeptical the gains will stick. There’s just such a vast difference in the teams’ offenses here with Boston sitting eighth in wRC+ (first if you filter to pretty much any date in May) and Oakland 29th. The A’s hit lefties a bit better but Rich Hill won’t stay in the game for more than four or five innings, and if the latter occurs, he’s likely rolling.

Current best price: Red Sox

New York Mets At LA Dodgers

If you simply bet the Dodgers every time they faced a right-handed pitcher this year and faded them every time they faced a lefty, I’m pretty sure you would be on your way to gold rocket car status. Well, they face a righty and a bad one today in Trevor Williams, who has been relegated to a swing role the past couple of seasons. While some of his numbers look decent, the 24.1% called strike+whiff rate is decidedly not. Throwing their own ace-like arm in Julio Urias, the Dodgers rate as pretty strong favorites in this one, enough so that I like a play on them despite the short price.

This one steamed in my favor some but I think there’s still a bit of room to play it at anything south of -185.

Current best price: Dodgers

Chicago Cubs At St. Louis Cardinals

The market seems less excited about my play here, but I just can’t help myself when I see the Cardinals as relatively short favorites against a mediocre-at-best lefty. Nobody has hit southpaws harder as even after a recent downturn the Cardinals own a 128 wRC+ against them. Justin Steele has a massive career handedness split with a .342 wOBA allowed when at the platoon disadvantage. And Adam Wainwright just knows how to pitch to contact in front of this elite defense, vastly outperforming his peripherals for several years running. While the top of the Cubs lineup has caught fire of late, the bottom half of it is pretty disastrous.

Current best price: Cardinals

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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