2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For July 26

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on July 26, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Tuesday, July 26

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Pittsburgh Pirates At Chicago Cubs

Laying -180 on the Cubs generally isn’t the best idea but I’ll make an exception for facing Bryse Wilson. He’s just about as bad as MLB pitchers come with career ERA numbers and all estimators north of 5. While his SIERA is a bit stronger this year, I put more stock in the 166 innings of atrocious performance he’s laid as a foundation. And Keegan Thompson has been surprisingly strong this year with a very solid 27.5% called strike+whiff rate and league average chase rate powering his resurgence.

The lineups are also diverging in some ways with the Cubs getting fully healthy while the Pirates just traded away one of their most capable bats in Dan Vogelbach. The Pirates should also be without two key bullpen pieces in Duane Underwood Jr. and Yerry De Los Santos. It’s not a big edge but I like the Cubs at -185 or better here.

Current best price: Cubs

Miami Marlins At Cincinnati Reds

The Reds came through for me yesterday but I like a small play on the other side today. Has the pendulum swung too far against the Marlins? I’m surprised I like them since I’ve been fading hard ever since their lineup got decimated with injuries, but perhaps the market has finally caught up to this situation.

Yes, the lineup stinks to high heaven but the Marlins have a pretty sizable pitching edge here. I’m just not buying Hunter Greene’s 3.73 SIERA, not when he has allowed the sort of contact he has allowed. I think his 4.48 xERA is a fair estimation of his talent level, and I have Pablo Lopez rated quite a bit stronger than that. Lopez also gets a sneaky little edge because of his changeup, which he throws about 40% of the time, against a team in the bottom 10 of MLB in hitting the cambio. Miami also has a far superior relief corps, ranking top 10 in FIP while Cincy sits dead last. It’s enough for a small play but not far past the -115 consensus line.

Current best price: Marlins

New York Yankees At New York Mets

This was my strongest play in the overnights at -105 and it’s good to see some market agreement backing me in the Subway Series. This matchup of two kitchen sink pitchers, albeit using opposite hand, does slightly favor the Yanks, I believe. Jordan Montgomery just has a more believable track record and set of peripherals compared with Taijuan Walker. The big difference in called strike+whiff rate — 29.9% to 25.7% — really stands out. The Mets are also quite a bit weaker when facing left-handed pitching, sporting a 102 wRC+ there (20th in MLB, they are at 109 overall).

The steam has cut the value big here but I still think there’s room to play the Yanks to -120.

Current best price: Yankees

Houston Astros At Oakland A’s

This is a bit of an unusual one because unlike most of my wagers, it’s not based on anything to do with the pitchers’ talent levels. In fact, if Frankie Montas comes out and fires six or seven innings, I think this line is quite reasonable. But that’s where I think the market may be missing something. This price looks to me like the market expects a normal start from Montas, but he went just 3 IP in his first start off the IL after taking no rehab starts prior. I don’t expect to go more than 5 IP at the absolute most.

Oakland has an atrocious group of relievers, sitting 24th in K-BB% and xFIP-. More than half of a baseball game featuring A’s relief seems like a recipe for an easy Astros win. I’d look for a live betting opportunity here if the A’s jump on top early and Montas looks good.

Current best price: Astros

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the ThLines’ YouTube channel. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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