The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.
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MLB Picks For Tuesday, May 24
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Chicago Cubs At Cincinnati Reds
Marcus Stroman has been victimized by some poor luck in a few different areas so far in 2022. He has given up 1.44 HR/9 with a 16.1% HR/FB rate. His career numbers in those areas: 0.85 and 13.5%, respectively. Considering the dead baseball, we should expect those to be better than his career marks, if anything. It might be a different story if he was pitching worse, but his SIERA is the lowest it’s been since 2015. Some hard early contact is a mild concern but I have him rated as a stronger starter than Tyler Mahle, who was a major profit center for me last season. Given the Cubs’ stronger bullpen and the comparable offenses, I had them closer to -120 and think if you can snag better than -110, this is a decent smaller play.
Current best price: Cubs
Milwaukee Brewers At San Diego Padres
I missed out on an amazing early price on the Brewers at -120 that was hanging around on Monday night, but I still think the price I got and the widely available -135s are good enough for a play. Corbin Burnes shook off his rough first start and has been incredible again despite home run issues similar to Stroman’s that are due to correct in his favor. Padres starter Blake Snell, himself a former Cy Young winner, had a rough go of it in his season debut with a 36.9% zone rate. His command wavers at the best of times, so this isn’t a major surprise in a season in which many starters have come out of the gate behind and struggling to grip the new baseball. I expect it will take him a bit to get on track and have Burnes projected well ahead of him. Recent news of Josh Hader leaving the team to deal with a family issue has downgraded Milwaukee a bit for me, but I still like it up to -140.
Current best price: Brewers
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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All you have to do is click on the link in the banners below and type in the promo code provided (if necessary), register a new account with the sportsbook, and you’re on your way to getting risk-free bets, odds boosts and/or deposit matches, depending on which sportsbook and state you reside in.