2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For May 19

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on May 19, 2022 - Last Updated on June 21, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Thursday, May 19

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

St. Louis Cardinals At New York Mets

The projections hate Dakota Hudson because his peripherals stink — career 4.71 FIP and 4.96 SIERA. Yet, he just keeps putting up ERAs around 3 year after year due to his ability to get tons of grounders in front of an elite defense. It’s been the same story so far in 2022. While I do project him for an ERA above 4, I’m not as bearish as the computers, so I think the Cardinals are a little undervalued here against Chris Bassitt, who is great. The Mets’ tendency to hit a lot of grounders — seventh-most in MLB this season — plays pretty strongly into Hudson’s favor.

Current best price: Cardinals

Seattle Mariners At Boston Red Sox

I like what I’ve seen so far from Mariners prospect George Kirby. While he had minimal Double A experience, that level was simply too easy for him, and he has hardly missed a beat jumping to MLB. He has a 0.90 ERA through his first two starts, and Statcast says it isn’t all good fortune as his xERA is a very solid 3.13. The notoriously conservative projections are all on board, pegging him for around a league-average line. I keep thinking it’s time for Rich Hill to hang it up, but maybe I just need to show the man some respect. Despite mediocre peripherals, he keeps putting up an ERA that starts with a 3. His command even keeps his called strike+whiff% above league average. The Mariners’ tendency to hit fly balls and pop-ups plays right into his hands, which should help his talent level play up a bit here. I’m mostly sweating Boston’s awful relief corps.

Current best price: Under

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
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Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

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