MLB Betting Odds & Predictions: Will Kansas City Royals Go Under Win Total?
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2025 MLB odds preview series. From now until the regular season begins, I'll provide write-ups on various MLB picks, focusing on futures such as MLB win totals and World Series odds. I'll discuss another pick among my MLB bets for the 2025 season: the Royals to go under their win total.
K.C. Royals Odds Odds: Full List
Find the best Kansas City Royals odds in your area below.
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K.C. Royals Overview and Projections
First, let’s compare the market on Royals odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2024 wins: 86
- Market wins: 82.5
- FanGraphs wins: 82.1
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 81.2
The Royals surprised almost everyone in 2024 by contending for the division, making the playoffs, and winning a first-round series against the favored Orioles. They did so with a somewhat imbalanced team that ranked 20th in wRC+ but third in pitching fWAR.
K.C. will essentially run it back on the pitching side, though they added closer Carlos Estevez, a wayward Angel who spent the back half of the season with Philly. To the offense, they added 2b Jonathan India and not much else.
Evaluating The Royals' Roster For MLB Bets
Bobby Witt Jr. powered the Royals in a significant way last season. The former top prospect broke out with a season for the ages, tallying 10.4 fWAR. That will always bring home the MVP, except in a season where some jerk in New York smashes 58 homers and produces offense at 218% of the league-average level.
The combination of Witt's sterling prospect pedigree and outstanding performance has the computers buying in. They forecast a 7 WAR season, with only Aaron Judge projected to outproduce him (again).
Witt is bound to regress, as 10 WAR seasons are tough to repeat. Can his teammates pick up any of the slack?
Maybe. Some members of Witt's supporting cast have surprisingly rosy projections.
M.J. Melendez, for instance, is projected as an above-average hitter despite owning a career wRC+ of 91. They still haven't found a defensive home for him, so he'll "contribute" his usual massively negative defense whenever he's wearing a glove.
The newly acquired India should help, but like Melendez, he gives many gains back on defense.
Vinny Pasquantino has been consistently solid with the stick, but that doesn't move the needle at 1B. He's also struggled to stay healthy, surpassing 550 PAs for the first time in 2024.
Can Royals Pitching Remain Elite?
The Royals managed a roughly average offense last year, but the pitching took them to the verge of the promised land. Cole Ragans' dominance was expected. The lefty fireballer is a bona fide ace.
Michael Wacha and Seth Lugo combined for 8 fWAR, each having the best season of their careers, much less so. With both players easily on the wrong side of 30, that will be a tough trick to repeat.
The Royals haven't made any additions here, opting to bring back Wacha and Michael Lorenzen. So, they're certainly crossing their fingers and hoping for encores.
Last year's bullpen wound up performing decently despite a decidedly modest investment. K.C. brought in Estevez to bolster the group. He should make for a solid top three, along with Lucas Erceg and Hunter Harvey. However, it's worth noting that the former Angel has a career 4.21 ERA.
Mo's MLB Bets: Royals Under 83.5 Wins (-110)
The forecasts peg the Royals for a middle-of-the-pack performance in both offense and pitching, but I think there are reasons for concern on both sides of the ball.
Regarding the bats, I don't trust anyone besides Witt. Salvador Perez had a career season out of nowhere. He's very likely to reverse course hard in his age-35 campaign. Pasquantino's projection looks very optimistic in terms of both playing time (630 PA) and wRC+ (124). I have no idea why the computers expect above-average offense out of Melendez and Massey, but I'm not on board with them.
Every arm besides Ragans is very likely to regress. I can't come close to trusting Lorenzen or Kris Bubic, and they're both being counted on in the rotation.
Don't expect any prospect reinforcements here, as the Royals have one of the weakest farm systems.
And because the Royals are so top-heavy, with much value concentrated in Witt and Ragans, they're especially vulnerable to injury. Both players have proven durable thus far, but if anything were to happen to either, K.C. would likely be dead in the water.
For all of these reasons, I took some Under 83.5 at DraftKings Sportsbook. It's a win off the consensus market price. I also added a unit on the Twins to win the division at +210 since I'm not a bit bearish on the Tigers and Guardians.
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