MLB Odds, Picks, Predictions: Will Boston Red Sox Win AL East?

Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2025 MLB odds preview series. From now until the regular season begins, I’ll provide write-ups on various MLB picks, focusing on futures such as MLB win totals and World Series odds.

Today, I’ll discuss my second bet within 2025 MLB picks: the Boston Red Sox to win the AL East.

Boston Red Sox Odds: Full List

Find the best Boston Red Sox odds in your area below.

Boston Red Sox Overview and Projections

First, let’s compare the market on Red Sox odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.

• 2024 wins: 81
• Market wins: 86.5
• FanGraphs wins: 84.7
• Baseball Prospectus wins: 79.8

Obviously, the Baseball Prospectus projection jumps out here. That system is significantly more bearish on Boston than every other number, especially the market price. BP gives the Red Sox just a 3.9% chance to take the division, projecting them in last place.

Boston made some huge moves in the offseason. The biggest was swinging a massive trade for White Sox ace LHP Garrett Crochet. He was elite last year across a shocking 32 starts, having moved from the bullpen. Crochet has one of the best projections in baseball (~4 fWAR).

The Red Sox also brought in Walker Buehler and Alex Bregman after watching Tyler O’Neill and Nick Pivetta leave in free agency. That should be a net upgrade, mainly because Bregman is a star.

Evaluating The Red Sox’s Roster For MLB Picks

Last year, Boston had an above-average offense. Considering it added Bregman and every one of its top four hitters is in his prime, it’s hard to imagine that group getting worse. Of Bregman, 1B Triston Cases, 3B Rafael Devers, and OF Jarren Duran, only the Houston import is on the wrong side of 30. And he’s still just entering his age-31 campaign.

From a position player standpoint, the defense was the biggest problem for the 2023 Red Sox. However, we can more specifically drill it down to the infield defense. Boston finished fifth in Statcast’s OAA metric among outfielders, but the infield ranked 29th.

Devers and SS/OF Ceddanne Rafaela did the majority of the damage. However, the situation should be significantly better in 2025.

Rafaela is projected to move to the outfield full-time. He’s excellent there. Trevor Story or top prospect Marcelo Mayer could replace him.

The third-base situation is thornier. The team has a simple fix if it commits to moving Devers off the hot corner, but drama has swirled around whether it’ll do that. Bregman is a much better option, having provided value on defense in each of the past three years.

Will common sense prevail here?

Elite Pitching Depth

On the pitching side, there isn’t much to worry about. Boston has both depth and talent.

Crochet gives the Red Sox a legitimate No. 1 as long as he can sustain another strong workload. There’s some reason for concern there, as the fireballer went from 37 innings to 146. The Red Sox will hope he’s ready to repeat that.

Tanner Houck and Brayan Bello are worthy second and third bananas. Houck was borderline elite last season. Bello has been up and down, but he’ll look better if the infield defense stops scraping the bottom of the barrel. He gets grounders almost 55% of the time.

All three are in their prime.

Kutter Crawford has been above average for two straight seasons. With Crawford, Buehler, and Lucas Giolito, the Red Sox have six starters who are projected as workable or better. Richard Fitts, Cooper Criswell, and Quinn Priester provide further acceptable depth. The Red Sox should be well-insulated from inevitable pitching injuries.

If there’s any worry, it’s the age of the bullpen. Liam Hendriks and Aroldis Chapman are 36 and 37, respectively. Even if one or both falter, Garrett Whitlock, plus whichever starters get converted to the pen, should provide enough for at least an average group.

Mo’s MLB Pick: Red Sox Win AL East (+440)

Boston has assembled a strong, well-rounded roster. Connor Wong is more of a backup catcher than a starter, but aside from this position, the team doesn’t have any significant holes.

What I like most about the Red Sox is their pitching depth. Their first five arms off the bench would probably outperform some of the worst rotations in MLB.

While their all-around depth gives them a rock-solid floor, there’s still room for upside here. Almost all of the major contributors are in their prime.

More importantly, the Red Sox boasts one of MLB’s best farm systems. OF Roman Anthony, SS Marcelo Mayer, and 2B Kristian Campbell give the team three prospects in the top 50. All could plausibly help the team this year by contributing themselves or in a trade for a difference-maker at the deadline.

Has Boston done enough to close the gap on the Yankees and Orioles at the top of the division?

I think it has because of the age of the Yankees’ rotation, the iffy back half of their lineup, and the lack of impact pitching in Baltimore. I expect Boston to be in the mix in this race and think there’s value here north of +400.

• Join TheLines.com’s free sports betting Discord — with over 5,000 community members and our staff sharing bets daily.

Best Sportsbook Promos For MLB Picks

If you choose to use these MLB projections for betting purposes, find the best sportsbook promos at the betting sites in your state below.