MLB Picks: Will Atlanta Braves Go Over Or Under Win Total?
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2025 MLB odds preview series. From now until the regular season begins, I'll provide write-ups on various MLB picks, focusing on futures such as MLB win totals and World Series odds.
Today, I'll discuss my first bet within 2025 MLB picks: the Atlanta Braves to finish under 93.5 wins.
Atlanta Braves Odds: Full List
Find the best Atlanta Braves odds in your area below.
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Atlanta Braves Overview and Projections
First, let’s compare the market on Braves odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2024 wins: 89
- Market wins: 93.5
- FanGraphs wins: 93.2
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 93.1
The Braves experienced a down year, finally ceding the division to the Phillies after winning it for six straight years. They only just squeaked into the playoffs. They had many injuries, some still hanging over the team.
The computers largely expect a bounce back here. Atlanta still retains a talented roster, although it did suffer a significant blow, losing ace Max Fried to the Yankees in free agency.
Atlanta's only significant offseason signing was LF Jurickson Profar. He fills a gaping hole in the outfield, where the Braves got replacement-level play from Jarred Kelenic, Adam Duvall, and several other non-contributors.
Evaluating The Braves' Roster For MLB Picks
The biggest reason for optimism about the Braves is a dead cat bounce for the offense. Atlanta had the best offense in MLB by a very large margin in 2023. Despite retaining most of its major contributors aside from Ronald Acuna Jr. (admittedly, losing the MVP is big), it fell off a cliff to a league-average 100 wRC+ in 2024.
The projections haven't forgotten about 2023. That isn't ancient history, and most of the players are still on the team, so that number still sways the computers upward from last year's comparatively dismal performance.
Questions Surround Braves Starters
While I'll allow that, I expect better from the offense (as a Braves fan, I certainly hope so), but I have major questions about this pitching staff. Here's the projected starting rotation:
- Chris Sale
- Reynaldo Lopez
- Spencer Schwellenbach
- Grant Holmes
- Ian Anderson
I don't know when or if Spencer Strider will return. He had surgery last April, so a mid-summer timeline would seem optimistic.
Looking over those names, I'm not 100% sold on any of them for 2025. In a way, that's true for any pitching staff because pitchers are fragile. Still, this is a remarkably shaky group for a team expected to be among MLB's best.
Yes, Chris Sale was fantastic last year. But he's entering his age-36 season and just completed something close to an entire season for the first time since 2019. He hadn't qualified for the ERA title since 2017. I have him projected as one of the best in the world, but I'm skeptical his body will hold up again.
Reynaldo Lopez had no track record of being a good starter and made no meaningful changes. Again, I'm impressed but skeptical that he can repeat it.
Schwellenbach was great and looks like a possible ace. Still, he has to do it for more than 123 innings before we can be sure he's elite.
Holmes was a reliever who reached the majors for the first time at age 28. That's not super promising, and the projections reflect that reality.
Anderson hasn't thrown an MLB pitch since 2022. He was last seen rocking an ERA of 5.
You can talk yourself into this being an above-average group, but I think a lot has to go right.
Mo's MLB Pick: Braves Under 93.5 Wins (+100 via DraftKings)
Getting to 94 wins isn't that easy. This is a lofty projection. Only three of the Braves' prior five division-winning teams in full seasons reached this mark.
Atlanta should be pretty solid all around, but there's a downside to the pitching staff. Even in the bullpen, CL Raisel Iglesias enters his age-35 season. Setup man A.J. Minter is gone in free agency, weakening that standout group.
Add in battling in a tough division that features two other contenders and only one pushover, and I'm surprised everyone seems so sure the Braves will return to their dominating ways.
Maybe their pitchers will do what they did last year, and with improved hitting, the Braves will reassert themselves. But between the pitching uncertainty and not having any idea what Acuna Jr. can bring to the table, I'm skeptical enough to make a wager on under this hefty win total.
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