MLB Betting Odds & Predictions: Will Arizona Diamondbacks Return To The Playoffs?
Written By Mo Nuwwarah | Last Updated at March 16, 2025
Welcome to TheLines.com’s 2025 MLB odds preview series. From now until the regular season begins, I'll provide write-ups on various MLB picks, focusing on futures such as MLB win totals and World Series odds. Today, I'll discuss another pick among my MLB bets for the 2025 season: Arizona Diamondbacks to make the playoffs.
Arizona Diamondbacks Odds Odds: Full List
Find the best Arizona Diamondbacks odds in your area below.
Arizona Diamondbacks Overview and Projections
First, let’s compare the market on Diamondbacks odds to publicly available projections from FanGraphs and Baseball Prospectus.
- 2024 wins: 89
- Market wins: 86.5
- FanGraphs wins: 85.7
- Baseball Prospectus wins: 87
Everyone's pretty much in agreement here that the Diamondbacks are a good but not great team.
There weren't many big changes to the Diamondbacks' roster. The biggest one came on the pitching staff, where the team spent big (six years, $210 million) to bring in Corbin Burnes. He'll replace Jordan Montgomery and should provide a very large upgrade.
The lineup loses a star performer in 1B Christian Walker. However, Josh Naylor is close to a like-for-like replacement. He projects as a small downgrade in the short term, but he'll likely help the Diamondbacks down the road more since he's six years younger than Walker. The other place the Snakes took a hit was at DH, where they lost Joc Pederson. They'll hope in-house options can do serviceable work replacing him.
Evaluating The Diamondbacks' Roster For MLB Bets
The ankle weight holding Arizona back from repeating its 2023 run was the pitching staff. The starters and relievers shared blame equally, ranking among the bottom 10 in the league.
Montgomery and Slade Cecconi each "provided" negative bWAR to the 2024 club. Cecconi's been shipped out in the deal that brought back Naylor, while Montgomery has his work cut out to earn a rotation spot. He may be ticketed for extended relief.
Burnes still projects as an ace. He's also a workhorse, having made an entire season's worth of starts for three consecutive years. That reliability will be a welcome addition to a staff that saw Zac Gallen, Merrill Kelly, and Eduardo Rodriguez miss time due to injury.
There is ample depth here with Brandon Pfaadt, Montgomery, and Ryne Nelson, who enjoyed a minor breakout (2.2 WAR).
The pen also looks stronger than last year's. Midseason trade acquisition A.J. Puk was a disaster in attempting to convert to the rotation in Miami, but he's excellent in relief. Justin Martinez has dynamite in his arm (100.6 mph fastball velocity). Both have borderline elite projections.
Kevin Ginkel, Joe Mantiply, and Ryan Thompson provide acceptable depth.
Overall, the Diamondbacks' pitching projects are much better than their 2024 results. They were also unlucky last year, with an ERA far exceeding their estimators. With a good defense backing the pitchers, that shouldn't be the case.
Offense Should Remain Above Average
Last year's offense performed at an elite level (fourth in wRC+), but they might be hard-pressed to repeat that.
We already touched on the losses of Pederson and Walker. While the team replaced Walker ably, Pavin Smith doesn't project as a great option to take over at DH. He did have some incredible batted-ball stats in a small sample last year, so perhaps he can continue that.
Ketel Marte also likely turned in his peak season, producing 6.3 WAR and figuring into MVP odds. Eugenio Suarez and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. are also on the decline.
The biggest reason for optimism is probably Corbin Carroll. The young outfielder was an MVP candidate as a rookie, but his OBP fell 40 points in 2024. He still made plenty of hard contact but had a .256 BABIP. That doesn't track, especially with his speed, so he seems pretty likely to rebound.
Arizona's two best prospects, SS Jordan Lawlar and C Adrian Del Castillo, also offer upside and insulation from the downside. They'll fill in if either Geraldo Perdomo or Gabriel Moreno is hurt or ineffective. Or, they could fetch impact mid-season reinforcements in a trade.
Mo's MLB Bets: Diamondbacks Make MLB Playoffs (-118)
The Diamondbacks look very solid all around. They're sort of the NL version of the Red Sox. I'm on the record as bullish on Red Sox odds, and I'm interested in Arizona too.
The obvious problem is that they play in the NL West, meaning winning the division with the juggernaut Dodgers in the way will be tough. I don't mind a play on the Diamondbacks in that market, but the Dodgers will be tough to beat.
Instead, I'm focusing on the odds of making the MLB playoffs, which only have the Dbacks as a slight favorite. Last year, they missed due to a tiebreaker with the Braves and Mets despite winning more games than they had the year before when they made the World Series.
I'm willing to chalk that up to primarily bad luck, as 89 wins will generally get a team in there, especially in the expanded playoff.
I got -118 here, but this market has moved slightly against me. In fact, you can get better odds now. FanDuel has a -115 available, which I obviously think is even better.
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