2022 MLB Picks: Betting Angles, Handicapping Thoughts For June 27

Written By Mo Nuwwarah on June 27, 2022
MLB picks

The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.

For the 2022 MLB season, bettors interested in following some daily betting angles can find write-ups here.

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MLB Picks For Monday, June 27

For ongoing discussion, betting adds, and other discourse around MLB bets, be sure to join our Discord. MLB picks will be posted there as they’re made (so you can potentially get better prices), and many other bettors can help provide various angles.

Oakland A’s At New York Yankees

The Yankees unsurprisingly come into Monday as monstrous favorites against the lowly A’s, favorites to a degree which we see only a few times during the typical MLB season. I just can’t get them to -300 or even particularly close mainly due to there not being a huge difference between these two starters. Yes, the projections still don’t believe in Paul Blackburn, but I do. He’s one of the bright spots in my miserable baseball season and he has maintained the velocity gains powering his jump. He continues to sit around 92 mph with his heater. A tiny 4.7% barrel rate shows he’s managing contact. SIERA has these two close as well, with only about 0.2 runs of difference. Additionally, Gleyber Torres, having a bounce back season, may sit out after spraining his ankle.

Current best price: A’s

Texas Rangers At Kansas City Royals

Martin Perez is another pop-up arm this year riding a big change to his pitch mix that emphasizes his best pitches, sinker and changeup. He’s been ultra-consistent as well, with just a single game score below 52 (against the lefty mashing White Sox) since he all but ditched his awful four-seamer and curve. The Rangers offense gets a beautiful spot here against a bad lefty in Kris Bubic (~4.8 ERA projection). They’ve crushed lefties to the tune of a 115 wRC+, seventh-best in baseball. Bubic looks like particularly good fodder as his changeup is his best pitch but the Rangers rank fourth against the cambio.

The market initially came in the other way overnight but the line has begun inching back toward Texas.

Current best price: Rangers

Baltimore Orioles At Seattle Mariners

Well, my Mariners bet got ruined yesterday when the entire offense hit the showers after the first inning thanks to a brawl. I don’t expect any suspensions to take hold just yet so I’m back on them here at a reasonable price that the market agreed with, moving them overnight against the Orioles.

Fading Tyler Wells has not been good to me but I just don’t see how he can continue pitching close to a 3.34 ERA with his lagging skills. The projections don’t believe in him and I don’t either. He has a subpar 25.6% called strike+whiff rate and a .240 BABIP that should come up even with his fly ball nature. The Mariners have a much more talented pitcher and a better defense and offense here. I had them closer to -170 and still think the current line around -160 is playable.

Current best price: Mariners

What to know about using MLB Picks

Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.

First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.

Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.

I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:

If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.

MLB Sportsbook Promos

If you are new to betting on MLB or new to betting on sports in general, a great way to get started is by taking advantage of one of the many sign-up offers online sportsbooks promote to new users like you. TheLines has partnered with many of these sportsbooks to help provide the very best promotions to pass along to you.

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Mo Nuwwarah Avatar
Written by
Mo Nuwwarah

Mo Nuwwarah got his start in gambling early, making his first sports bet on his beloved Fab Five against the UNC Tar Heels in the 1993 NCAA tournament. He lost $5 to his dad and got back into sports betting years later during a 15-year run in the poker industry. A 2011 journalism graduate from Nebraska-Omaha, he combines those skills with his love of sports and statistics to help bettors make more informed decisions with a focus on pro football, baseball and basketball.

View all posts by Mo Nuwwarah
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