The MLB schedule is a long journey lasting more than half of the year. While that makes it a grind, it also makes it a tremendous betting opportunity. It gives our MLB picks ample time to build a sample and hopefully overcome variance, and it provides the biggest menu of bets (and potential value) when compared to almost any other sport.
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MLB Picks For Wednesday, July 6
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LA Angels At Miami Marlins
It’s been awhile since I could bet on my guy Shohei Ohtani as the market finally caught up to the fact he was pitching as well as anyone in the world, regardless of what his ERA said. He still sports a 2.55 SIERA and a ridiculous 32.4% called strike+whiff rate. Against a reduced strength Marlins lineup lacking Jazz Chisholm and Jorge Soler, he should have another strong showing. I can’t say I expect the same for Trevor Rogers, who has struggled mightily to replicate his sterling rookie year. His peripherals (4.83 xERA, 4.7 SIERA) validate his struggles, and the Angels hit the changeup at a league-average level, which is Rogers’ plus weapon. That’s enough for me to get a little down at better than -165.
Current best price: Angels
Texas Rangers At Baltimore Orioles
Cover your eyes for this game, featuring two of the very worst starters in the game. However, the computer have significantly more confidence in Glen Otto than Spenser Watkins, projecting the former for an ERA around 4.8 while they expect Watkins to sit below replacement level around 5.5. Further, I do think the Orioles lineup somewhat mitigates Otto’s biggest weakness. He gives away far too many free passes but the Orioles sit bottom five in both O-swing% and BB%. I’m also hoping Austin Hays and maybe even Ryan Mountcastle take another day off as both missed Tuesday with lingering injuries/illness.
Current best price: Rangers
San Francisco Giants At Arizona Diamondbacks
Probably my favorite play of the day, I still think the projections haven’t caught up to just how great Alex Cobb has pitched. Even regressing his 3.01 SIERA a bit, I still think he’s a level above my guy Merrill Kelly. Cobb has elite numbers in his 30% called strike+whiff rate and even a negative launch angle. I also think the numbers are underrating the Giants offense against right-handed pitching right now, as they are just recently re-integrating key lefties Brandon Crawford, Brandon Belt and Lamonte Wade Jr. The already poor Diamondbacks pen will also likely not have Mark Melancon available.
Current best price: Giants
What to know about using MLB Picks
Generally, when looking over these MLB lines and breakdowns, there are a few things to keep in mind.
First, it’s a long season. There will be hot and cold streaks. Swings of 20+ units will happen. While I’ve had multiple winning seasons, there’s no guarantee I’ll come out ahead this year or any other. Always bet responsibly, and always line shop using our MLB page to find the best lines available at legal sportsbooks in your state. That will give you the best chance of turning a profit.
- MLB futures bets from TheLines writers Eli Hershkovich and Mo Nuwwarah
Furthermore, note that because of the process I’ll be using (attacking overnight markets), lines may shift significantly by the time you read this if you’re checking it out on game day. Hopefully the lines have moved in my favor, and if that’s the case – use your best judgment as to whether you still think the bet is as good as the current line.
I’ll base my plays heavily on starting pitchers, like most any MLB bettor. If you want to learn more about baseball so you can do your own handicapping, start with these resources breaking down a variety of useful metrics:
If you prefer your MLB previews in video form, subscribe to the YouTube channel of TheLines‘ sister site, PlayPicks. We’ll go over daily breakdowns there with the Coast 2 Coast crew.
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