Throughout the MLB season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s break down the MLB odds that showcase some value for the finale of the Padres-Reds’ series. You can find the rest of Thursday’s odds here.
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MLB Odds: San Diego Padres vs. Cincinnati Reds
The Reds are in danger of getting swept by the Padres while dropping 13 of their last 14 games overall, but the market is still a little too low on them in this matchup. They opened at +102 to win outright and +105 for first five moneyline.
For one, Cincinnati righty Tyler Mahle isn’t priced correctly. The 27-year-old has tallied a 6.88 ERA in four appearances, yet it’s fairly inflated after a short outing against the Dodgers’ top-tier lineup. His 2.43 FIP showcases his true worth, and his fastball velocity has dipped just 0.6 points from last season, proving there shouldn’t be much concern about his stuff.
Moreover, San Diego’s lineup owns a below-average efficiency against Mahle’s two most utilized pitches — the four-seam fastball and slider (via FanGraphs’ pitch value).
On the flip side, trusting the Reds’ bats can be a mental rollercoaster. They’ve delivered the league’s lowest collective wRC+.
Nevertheless, Padres starter Nick Martinez has outperformed his peripherals in a big way, generating a 7.99 FIP in his three outings. That’s the highest number among pitchers with at least 10 innings under their belt in 2022.
Hence, I’m (regrettably) backing Cincinnati on the F5 ML. Both teams own bottom-10 bullpens thus far, but Mahle is still the more reliable variable in this contest.