Both the Padres and Giants entered the campaign with World Series aspirations, but only Bob Melvin’s club () has lived up to them thus far. They’ll face off in a critical four-game series at Petco Park, so let’s break down the MLB odds for Thursday’s NL West showdown.
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MLB Odds: San Diego Padres vs. San Francisco Giants
Gaber Kapler will send San Francisco ace Logan Webb to the mound in this one. The 25-year-old owns a respectable 3.13 ERA in 16 outings, yet his 2.98 FIP showcases that he’s performed a cut above the traditional metric.
Webb’s biggest issue is his lack of pitch deception, as his strikeout rate has dipped 4.8 percentage points (21.7%) from last season. That’s played a role in his opponent’s expected slugging percentage (xSLG), which is drawn up using exit velocity, launch angle and, on certain types of batted balls, sprint speed, sinking from the 87th percentile to the 71st percentile.
While that isn’t a massive decrease, it’s enough to suggest why he’s fallen out of the NL Cy Young conversation ().
However, the Padres’ lineup has accrued the league’s third-lowest efficiency (via FanGraphs) against sinkers — Webb’s most utilized pitch type (37.8%). They also rank No. 18 in that department versus the changeup, which he employs 26.3% of the time.
On top of that, San Diego’s bats have scuffled over the last two weeks, producing the lowest collective hard-hit rate (24.0%) across baseball amid that span.
Related: 2022 World Series Odds
Will Giants’ Offense Support Webb?
Webb will oppose Joe Musgrove, who’s firmly in the NL Cy Young mix () with a 2.25 ERA. Nevertheless, his 3.10 FIP and 2.86 xERA, respectively, display potential signs of negative regression.
Moreover, Joc Pederson & Co. own an above-average efficiency against two of Musgrove’s most effective pitches — his curveball (23.8%) and fastball (20.3%).
Even though San Francisco’s bullpen may be without closer Camilo Doval (which could result in a positive because of his occasional command issues) after throwing 37 pitches in Wednesday’s win at Arizona, I’m willing to back the Giants in a buy-low spot.
Best Available Line: 2022 MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s MLB Bet: