After winning a critical series against the Braves, the Mets head to Chicago to take on the struggling Cubs. Let’s dig into which MLB odds I’m eyeing for Thursday’s matchup. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.
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MLB Odds: New York Mets at Chicago Cubs
Even though the Mets () are one of the favorites to win it all, they’ll send the scuffling Carlos Carrasco to the mound at Wrigley Field.
Not only does the 35-year-old own a 4.03 xERA to go along with his 4.55 ERA, but his opponent’s expected batting averaged (xBA) and expected slugging percentage (xSLG), respectively, also place in the 37th percentile. Essentially, Carrasco doesn’t showcase overpowering stuff.
Moreover, the Cubs’ offense surprisingly sits in the middle of the league in wRC+. They hold the same position in regards to efficiency versus four-seam fastballs, too, which is Carrasco’s most-utilized pitch type (38.5%).
Betting Market Catching Up To Keegan Thompson?
Thompson’s peripherals aren’t overly impressive, accruing a 3.51 xERA and 23.4% strikeout rate, respectively. But his four-seam fastball spin ranks in the 92nd percentile among all pitchers, emphasizing his long-term potential.
Meanwhile, Pete Alonso & Co. have exhibited their fair share of issues against that particular pitch, notching the 11th-lowest efficiency overall. If Thompson is effective enough against the Mets’ lineup, he’ll be in position to hand things over to one of the league’s most underrated bullpens.
Considering Chicago opened as a +125 home underdog, the market has already taken a bite of value out of its price tag. But I’m still willing to back the Cubs against a below-average starter in Carrasco.
Best Available Line: TheLines’ 2022 MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s MLB Bets: