MLB Futures Midseason Check-In: Where Do Teams Stand?

The All-Star Game and Home Run Derby have wrapped up, the latter not without controversy. That leaves one final day of rest before the 2022 MLB odds resume. With markets staying static for the time being, it’s a good time to check on the MLB futures market.

Where do things stand in relation to the preseason? Which teams’ World Series odds have changed for the better and worse? Which teams are heading over or under their win totals?

Let’s take a look at the state of MLB with just shy of 60% of the season in the books.

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MLB Futures: Which Bets Have Gained And Lost The Most Value?

Note: current futures prices and win totals in tables below via BetMGM Sportsbook

One of the themes of the 2022 MLB season thus far: the teams expected to perform at the top level have indeed solidified themselves as the elite contenders. All four of the teams to gain significant championship equity (4%+) began the season among the top seven favorites.

Team	Current Odds	Preseason Odds	World Series Win Probability (FanGraphs)
LA Dodgers	+350	+500	16.7%
Houston Astros	+450	+1000	14.6%
New York Yankees	+325	+950	14.1%
New York Mets	+700	+1200	13.8%

It’s looking like a pretty top-heavy season in general with almost all of the equity concentrated in five teams: Yankees (), Dodgers (), Astros (), Mets () and Braves (). According to both the betting market and the FanGraphs in-season projections, we should be pretty shocked if a champion emerges from outside of that group.

Which Team Could Be This Year’s Braves?

Speaking of the Braves, they emerged as a most unlikely champion — at least at the point we checked for this piece in 2021. They rebuilt the outfield on the fly with a flurry of moves, and the healthy players picked up steam down the stretch, playing like they were expected to after a legitimate title push in 2020.

The Nationals fit a similar bill in 2019 as an in-season longshot that cashed after playing to a very disappointing first half.

In both cases, these teams had plenty of talent and recovered down the stretch.

Does any team make a case as this year’s 2021 Braves/2019 Nationals?

Two teams might be worth a look for those hunting midseason value in MLB futures. Both the Blue Jays and White Sox were in the 10-to-1 range in the preseason. Now, you can bet them at and , respectively. Both teams have lost just shy of 6% World Series probability according to the betting market.

The White Sox, partially anchored by Cy Young contender Dylan Cease (), have a clear path to the division title with only the wobbling Twins and the overachieving Guardians to beat out. The Jays are locked in on a wild-card hunt as the Yankees have run away with the division, but they do have a unique built-in advantage that unvaccinated star players on opposing teams will be forced to miss Jays home games.

In both cases, the teams feature enticing playoff profiles. They each have two top-line starting pitchers backed by explosive offenses with depth. However, keep in mind the expanded playoff does disadvantage those outside the top two seeds.

MLB Win Totals: Which Teams Are Heading Over, Under?

On the win total side of things, many bettors will want to know how their plays are looking at the “halfway” mark. Several teams have nearly locked in their overs or unders. We’ll take a look at these and provide updated MLB win totals markets for every team in case you want to put in a hedge or get some second-half action in.

Six teams are big favorites to hit their overs. Surprisingly, almost every case involves a preseason favorite with a big win total, which shows just how stratified the MLB has been this year.

Team	Win Total	Current Pace	Projected Total Wins (FanGraphs)	Current Market
LA Dodgers	96.5	108.1	101.2	103.5
New York Yankees	91.5	112.8	103.6	104.5
Houston Astros	91.5	105	100.6	101.5
New York Mets	90.5	101.1	97.2	97.5
Atlanta Braves	90.5	96.6	94.9	94.5
Baltimore Orioles	62.5	81	75.2	75.5

Baltimore obviously sticks out like a sore thumb in this group. The scrappy Orioles have been among the most profitable teams to bet this year. Their pitching has been shockingly effective, with the bullpen in particular standing out. That unit has amassed the third-most WAR. As bullpen performance tends to fluctuate, the market is understandably a bit skeptical.

Also of particular note are the Mets. They probably can’t afford to take their foot off the gas with the Braves breathing down their necks. With Jacob deGrom and Tylor Megill set to come off the IL in the second half, the already strong pitching staff could get significant reinforcements.

On the negative side, many of the expected weakest teams have surprisingly all but locked in their unders. These tend to be a little more sticky, too, because the out-of-it teams become motivated to sell off short-term pieces. That causes their true talent level to sink even further.

Team	Win Total	Current Pace	Projected Total Wins (FanGraphs)	Current Market
Oakland A's	71.5	55.7	60.3	58.5
Washington Nationals	71.5	53.5	59.9	58.5
Cincinnati Reds	74.5	60.6	67	65.5
Chicago Cubs	75.5	61.6	68.5	66.5
Kansas City Royals	75.5	63.3	68.1	66.5
Detroit Tigers	78.5	65.1	68.1	68.5
LA Angels	83.5	68.7	75.1	75.5
Chicago White Sox	91.5	81	84.3	85.5

Obviously, the White Sox stand as the exception here. Due to their proximity to Minnesota — a manageable three-game deficit — they will likely look to add pieces in advance of the Aug. 2 trade deadline. Again, that makes them an interesting buy candidate if that isn’t priced into the market.

The rest of the teams still have their win total results very much in the balance. Try to determine which way these teams will behave at the deadline before locking in any midseason MLB futures.