Friday MLB Bets: Will White Sox Continue Slide vs. Twins?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on April 22, 2022 - Last Updated on April 23, 2022
MLB Bets

Throughout the MLB season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s break down my MLB bets for the first of the Twins-White Sox three-game series. You can find the rest of Friday’s odds here.

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Minnesota Twins vs. Chicago White Sox Odds

Despite the Guardians’ three-game sweep of White Sox earlier in the week, there’s still value in fading them against the Twins’ Bailey Ober — one of the most underrated starters in baseball.

The 26-year-old righty delivered an inconsistent 2021 rookie campaign, finishing with a 4.01 xFIP and 25.3% strikeout rate. Although he’s eluding bats at a lesser clip to begin his second season in the big leagues, opponents are a manufacturing a mere 4.8% barrel rate. For context, the MLB’s average barrel rate is between to six to nine percent while anything between 10 to 15 percent is considered substantial.

Well, Chicago is the most barrel-reliant club thus far in 2022, and it’s generating the second-lowest wRC+ against right-handers. Moreover, its lineup has tallied the fifth-lowest efficiency versus four-seam fastballs (via FanGraphs’ pitch value), which is Ober’s most-utilized pitch.

To make matters worse, slugger Luis Robert could miss tonight’s game — and potentially the entire series — after suffering a groin strain on Thursday.

If Ober displays sound command, expect the White Sox to continue to struggle to produce run-scoring chances. In his two starts, his walk rate (6.8%) is roughly league average.

Ironically, he’s seen Minnesota’s offense accrue a league-average success rate against four-seam fastballs as well. Similar to Ober, that’s the go-to pitch for his counterpart Michael Kopech — by a wide margin. Expect MVP candidate Bryon Buxton, who returned from the 10-day IL on Thursday, and his teammates to string together positive results.

Minnesota opened as a -118 favorite before it was bet down to a pick’em. I’ll grab that for one of my Friday MLB bets.

Best Available Line: Twins
Eli’s MLB Bets:

 

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich