MLB Today’s Best Bets: Home Run Picks and Top Player Props on October 8th
Written By Blaise Bourgeois | Last Updated at October 8, 2025
Today is one of the most exciting days in the baseball calendar: ALDS Game 4s and NLDS Game 3s, with all four matchups being elimination games.
Can the Tigers and Yankees force a pivotal game 5, or will the Mariners and Blue Jays clinch their places in the ALCS? Will the Dodgers and Brewers complete their sweeps tonight? While we'll find out all the answers tonight, we will do our best to predict the outcomes before the games start.
We've done our research, dug through the data, and have come up with MLB's best bets today at the best odds. Last night, both of our best bets hit at +525 and +800 odds, and we even nailed Aaron Judge 3+ hits at +1000! Today, we'll list our favorite home run props, best player props, and give you a couple of home run props to consider.
Seattle Mariners @ Detroit Tigers
- Home Run Pick: Jorge Polanco (+520 via FanDuel)
- Player Prop Pick: Bryce Miller 5+ Strikeouts (+178 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Parlay: Polanco, Cal Raleigh (+1438 via FanDuel)
- Best Bet: Seattle ML, Miller 5+ Strikeouts, Polanco 3+ total bases (+1129 via FanDuel)
If you went with our best bet of the day yesterday (Seattle ML, o7.5 runs, Raleigh 5+ total bases), you were rewarded with a juicy +800 return. We also got Raleigh to hit a homer at +217 as the Mariners took care of the Tigers 8-4. Let's try to do it again today.
Looking on paper, it'd be very easy to dismiss Bryce Miller and his ability to perform today after struggling with injury issues in 2025, finishing with a 5.68 ERA - a far cry from his 2.94 ERA season in 2024. Naturally, Mariners fans are nervous and have good reason to be; his WAR dropped from 3.4 to -0.8, going from the best in the M's rotation to the worst in just one season.
While Miller has had better days, he has two big things going for him tonight: Seattle's blistering momentum at the dish, and a fantastic history against Detroit's lineup. Though it's not the biggest sample size, Detroit's batters have gone a combined 12-for-52 (.231) with no walks and 13 strikeouts. Of those 12 hits, 10 were singles and two were doubles. That makes for a lowly OPS of just .500, compared to Casey Mize's .894 OPS against Mariners batters.
Of the many batters to have pummeled Mize in the past, Jorge Polanco stands out the most. He's a career 6-for-16 with two HRs, two doubles, and 5 RBI. Given the history and his playoff performances thus far, expect him to do some damage at the dish.
Milwaukee Brewers @ Chicago Cubs
- Home Run Pick: Christian Yelich (+760 via DraftKings)
- Player Prop Pick: Yelich 2+ hits (+280 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Parlay: Yelich, Jackson Chourio (+4100 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Cubs ML, Over 6.5 runs, Yelich 1+ hits (+360 via DraftKings)
The Brewers roster has seen a lot of Jameson Taillon over the years, with the team combining for an eye-watering 183 at-bats against the righty. Taillon dominates the majority of the lineup, but superstars Christian Yelich and Jackson Chourio dominate him and will need to produce if the Brewers are going to complete the sweep. Chourio is a career 7-for-13 (.538) against Taillon, while Yelich is a very impressive 13-for-37 (.351).
Unfortunately, it's the rest of the lineup that severely drops off historically, posting a career .669 OPS against Taillon. The Cubs, meanwhile, have a combined .905 OPS against Quinn Priester in 67 at-bats.
While we expect Yelich and Chourio to have big games, we think the Cubs are gonna get to Priester early and enjoy a relatively one-sided win. If you want to add some juice to our best bet, you can improve it from +360 to +1100 if you trust that Yelich will go for two hits instead of one.
Toronto Blue Jays @ New York Yankees
- Home Run Pick: Aaron Judge (+200 via DraftKings)
- Player Prop Pick: Cam Schlittler 8+ strikeouts (+520 via FanDuel)
- Home Run Parlay: Judge, Cody Bellinger (+1200 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Yankees ML, Schlittler 8+ strikeouts, Judge 2+ hits (+2049 via FanDuel)
If you missed our bets of the day in Game 3 yesterday, we feel pretty bad for you. We smashed our best bet of the day at +525 and Aaron Judge 3+ hits for +1000, on top of Judge going yard for +190.
The postseason has its unsung heroes, and it already has one in Cam Schlittler, who threw 12 strikeouts in eight shutout innings against Boston in Game 3 to send the Yankees to the ALDS. It feels like Schlittler is ready to rubber-stamp himself as one of baseball's premier pitchers, and a revenge performance against the Blue Jays could solidify that label.
Despite starting 2025 with AA Somerset, Schlittler has been one of the best young Yankees pitchers in recent memory, finishing the season with a 2.96 ERA and a 2.0 WAR in just 14 starts. In fact, over his last 10 outings, he's only allowed more than one earned run on two occasions. His only rough outing of his big league career thus far was his September outing against the Blue Jays, where he allowed four runs on five hits, two walks, and one HBP in just 1.2 innings.
He'll be out to atone for that performance in his second elimination start in front of a very loud Yankee Stadium. He lived up to the hype against Boston, and we think he's going to become an MLB superstar tonight.
Did we mention that the Blue Jays are going to have a bullpen game tonight? They'll start Louis Varland, who gave up two runs in an inning last night. Yankees hitters own a ridiculous 1.398 OPS against Varland, with Judge going 3-for-6 with three HRs. He's going to get his chance for an early bomb and we think he just might take it.
Philadelphia Phillies @ Los Angeles Dodgers
- Home Run Pick: Kike Hernandez (+700 via DraftKings)
- Player Prop Pick: Yoshinobu Yamamoto 9+ strikeouts (+222 via DraftKings)
- Home Run Parlay: Hernandez, Shohei Ohtani (+1900 via DraftKings)
- Best Bet: Dodgers -3.5, Yamamoto 9+ strikeouts (+800 via DraftKings)
Bet $1, Double your Winnings on your Next 20 Wagers. Up to $25 Max Bet Per Boost This series feels like it ended before it really began. The Dodgers took the first two in Philadelphia and are strong favorites to close it out tonight in LA with Yoshinobu Yamamoto on the hill against Aaron Nola, not-so-proud owner of a 6.01 ERA this season.
Yamamoto is probably the hottest pitcher on the planet right now, having allowed just 15 hits and 3 earned runs over his last six starts combined (40.2 innings). It's clear that he doesn't feel much postseason pressure, dominating in 2024 as the Dodgers won the World Series and toying with the Reds to begin his 2025 postseason run.
We think the Dodgers are going to win this game very early on, though Yamamoto will demand to go at least 6-7 innings. Kike Hernandez is a good shout for a sneaky home run today, going yard three times in 11 career plate appearances against Nola.
Featured Image Mandatory Credit: John Froschauer-Imagn Images
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