Throughout the season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dig into the MLB betting market for the final of a three-game series between the Giants and Cardinals.
MLB Betting: Giant at Cardinals
After splitting the first two games, Carlos Rodon, a National League Cy Young contender (), squares off against veteran Adam Wainwright. The 40-year-old is making his return off the injured list after he was diagnosed with COVID-19.
Rodon’s dominant start to the 2022 campaign is highlighted by a 1.21 FIP and 2.01 xERA. The southpaw has also seen the velocity on his four-seam fastball, which he employs 58.7% of the time, tick up a full point (96.4 mph). Giants pitching coach Andrew Bailey & Co. has exhibited his prowess for enhancing starting pitchers’ stuff, and Rodon is no exception.
Nevertheless, the Cardinals are tallying the second-highest wRC+ against lefties. They’ve even generated an above-average efficiency against the four-seam fastball, slider and changeup — Rodon’s three most-utilized pitches.
Trust St. Louis’ Arms?
Not only should Nolan Arenado & Co. deliver at the plate, but Wainwright could see some success as well. The righty possesses a respectable 3.39 FIP and 3.60 xERA in six starts. He’s reliant on his off-speed pitches at this point in his career, especially as his velocity continues to dip.
Wainwright primarily mixes up his curveball (34.1%), sinker (28.1%) and cutter (22.0%) usage. Expect him to apply the cutter most often, as San Francisco’s bats own the ninth-lowest efficiency against that pitch type (via FanGraphs).
Moreover, the Cardinals’ bullpen has steadily improved in the first month-plus, and the hope is that relievers Giovanny Gallegos and Ryan Hesley are both available following their light usage over the last week.
With these factors in mind, there’s enough value to back the home underdog.
Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds board
Eli’s MLB Betting Pick: