MLB Betting: Evaluating Updated Reds, O’s, D’Backs Odds
Entering the 2023 MLB campaign, the Reds, Orioles, and Diamondbacks showcased a win total of 76.5 or less. Therefore, oddsmakers weren’t extremely bullish on any of their chances to contend. Nevertheless, their MLB betting results thus far have proven quite the opposite, as they represent three of the four most profitable teams to date. Let’s assess how to evaluate each of them moving forward.
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Unsurprisingly, David Bell’s club is the most profitable team — up nearly 18 units. The Reds have emerged victorious 21 of their last 27 games overall, including a 12-game winning streak. That was equivalent to the longest run for any team that lost 100 or more games the season prior since the Louisville Colonels (1890).
The hot streak coincides with the call-up of Reds phenom Elly De La Cruz (). The third baseman sits behind Arizona’s Corbin Carroll among National League Rookie of the Year odds. There’s an abundance of young talent surrounding De La Cruz, as infielders Matt McClain and Spencer Steer are among the top names on the board as well.
However, the rotation is a concern moving forward. Cincinnati’s starting pitching has manufactured the third-highest FIP across MLB — surrounded by the Royals, Nationals, A’s, and Rockies. The timeline for Hunter Greene (hip) and Nick Lodolo (lower leg) isn’t exactly clear, either. Meanwhile, Milwaukee — just one game behind the Reds — is expected to get Brandon Woodruff (subscapular strain) back in the rotation come August.
We’ll also learn plenty about the “second-half” trajectory of fellow Brewers starter Corbin Burnes on Friday. The veteran right-hander has increased his whiff rate — largely behind his prolific cutter — from 22.6% in 16 starts through June to 26.5% in his two July outings. Despite a smaller sample size in his more recent performances, one of those starts came against Cincinnati, surrendering two earned runs in six innings.
Burnes has tacked on an average of almost 100 more RPM on the pitch to boot. He’s even yet to give up a hit on any of his secondary pitches this month, surrendering only four against the cutter (four singles, one home run). As a result, Burnes boasts the fifth-highest Stuff+ in the last 30 days.
But as was the case in each of Burnes’ starts, the market has moved against him from the opening line to the close. Brewers’ moneyline odds have dipped from -120 to -115 against the darling Reds this time around.
In fact, Cincinnati plays Milwaukee six times this month. The NL Central winner will certainly be influenced by these results. Still, bettors who bet OV 65.5 wins are sitting pretty. They’re a big liability for nationwide operators, too.
The O’s are a tad behind the Reds in regards to “first-half” profitability. The distinction between the two teams is Baltimore’s offensive consistency — juxtaposed with Cincinnati recently catching fire. Brandon Hyde’s bunch has generated the seventh-highest wRC+ in all of baseball.
Similar to De La Cruz, fellow infielder Gunner Henderson finds himself in the AL Rookie of the Year race (). Henderson’s hard-hit rate ranks in the 92nd percentile, along with an impressive 2.3 WAR. He and the Orioles are just two games back of the Rays for first place the AL East, yet there’s enough competition behind them to be wary of investing in this market.
Instead, consider wagering on sophomore starter Kyle Bradish in his coming starts. Despite his fair share of underwhelming peripherals, Bradish owns the top-rated Stuff+ over the last month. This metric is scaled in parallel with IQ. A score of “100” signifies that a given pitch graded out as league average relative to other pitches thrown in a player’s arsenal. Hence, Bradish’s 4.41 xERA inaccurately depicts his potential in the foreseeable future.
Moreover, Bradish is backed by arguably the league’s premier bullpen, including All-Star closer Felix Bautista. His next start is against the Marlins on Sunday. You can price shop Baltimore’s MLB odds for this matchup once they’re released.
Dissimilar to the Reds and Orioles, many sharp MLB bettors jumped aboard Arizona’s bandwagon ahead of the season. Its win total was set at a measly 75.5 — juiced to the under. Nevertheless, the D’backs are tied with the Dodgers atop the NL West.
The aforementioned Carroll, as well as NL Cy Young favorite Zac Gallen (), are the linchpins behind their rise. But collectively, the Diamondbacks may very well come back down to earth over the next three months.
Although wins and losses are what matter in the standings (and for our bankrolls), recognizing how many runs a team has scored and allowed often supplies a better snapshot of how well a team has performed over a given timeframe. According to FanGraphs’ BaseRuns, which reveals a context-neutral run estimator to evaluate a team’s outlook, both the Giants and Padres are neck-and-neck with the Diamondbacks to this point.
Granted, that doesn’t necessarily insinuate that San Diego will reenter the mix. Nor does it signify that San Francisco’s offense is reliable enough outlast its competition in the division or NL wild-card race — even if it adds another bat.
That said, Arizona appears to be at the peak of its market value. The rotation is extremely untrustworthy as a whole. Plus, Gallen could even undergo some struggles if his 4.9% walk rate regresses back to his career average. Thus, the D’backs are a potential fade candidate when the right matchups present themselves.
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