MLB Betting: Twins Undervalued In Sunday’s Rubber Match?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on July 31, 2022 - Last Updated on August 1, 2022
MLB Betting

In the finale of a three-game series between the Padres and Twins, splitting their first two matchups, let’s delve into my MLB betting pick. Click any of the odds below to place a bet.

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MLB Betting: Minnesota Twins at San Diego Padres

Mediocrity On The Mound

Backing Twins starter Dylan Bundy, regardless of his refined 3.81 xERA, isn’t for the faint-hearted. But Minnesota’s price tag showcases some value, considering it’s up against the declining Sean Manaea.

The southpaw has performed a bit more admirably than his 4.33 ERA would suggest, showcasing a 3.84 xERA of his own. Nevertheless, his declining pitch velocity — particularly on his sinker — has produced plenty of hard contact, as his opponent’s average exit velocity finds itself in the 24th percentile.

On top of that, Manaea’s Stuff+, measuring the quality of a pitcher’s stuff based on the physical characteristics of his pitches via The Athletic’s Eno Sarris, has dipped more than any pitcher across baseball over his last 400 pitches thrown.

Twins Primed To Punish

For starters, Rocco Baldelli’s club owns the 12th-rated wRC+ against lefties this season. To make matters worse for Manaea, Minnesota has generated a +7.2 run value against sinkers — his primary pitch (52.8% usage) — good for the league’s seventh-highest efficiency.

That success isn’t even driven by Twins sluggers Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, as Jorge Polanco and Luis Arraez boast a top 25 individual ranking in that department.

MLB Betting Pick

Even though San Diego’s bullpen is more reliable overall, I’m willing to back Minnesota full-game since we should get a relatively passable outing from Bundy. Keep in mind, the 29-year-old relies on his four-seam fastball, and the Padres’ run value is league average versus that pitch type.

Best Available Line: TheLines’ MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s Bet:

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich