Thursday MLB Bets: Luzardo, Marlins Undervalued vs. Padres?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 5, 2022 - Last Updated on May 6, 2022
MLB Betting

Throughout the season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dig into the MLB betting market for the first of a four-game series between the Padres and Marlins.

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MLB Betting: Padres vs. Marlins Odds

While the Marlins have fallen into a four-game losing skid, they’re priced around a pick’em against the Padres after opening as a +125 underdog. The market has little confidence in San Diego’s Nick Martinez, and plenty of rationale exists as to why.

Martinez has tallied a 4.12 ERA in his four outings, and his 6.64 xERA and 6.55 FIP showcase that his results could be much worse. Those metrics don’t guarantee his struggles will continue, but he ranks bottom 10 in both categories among starting pitchers.

Moreover, the 31-year-old righty is yielding a 16.1% barrel rate, which indicates that opposing lineups are churning out well-struck balls at a consistent rate. MLB’s average barrel rate is between to 6 and 9% while anything between 10-15% is considered substantial.

Not only has Miami delivered the fourth-highest wRC+ against right-handed pitchers, but they’ve also accrued a top-10 efficiency versus the four-seam fastball, changeup and cutter (via FanGraphs) — Martinez’s three most-utilized pitch types. Hence, Jazz Chisholm Jr. & Co. are in position for plenty of success.

On the flip side, Martinez’s counterpart Jesús Luzardo has begun to rediscover his elite-level stuff that made him the fourth-ranked overall prospect in 2020. The southpaw’s 2.31 FIP and 2.73 xERA each rank in the top 25 among starting arms, and his overall velocity has increased substantially from last season.

Even though the Padres have manufactured their fair share of success against the curveball and four-seam fastball — Luzardo’s two primary pitches — there’s enough value to back the Marlins at this price.

Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds board
Eli’s MLB Bets:

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich