MLB Betting Odds: 2 Buy-Low Teams For Potential World Series Futures?

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Written By Eli Hershkovich | Last Updated
MLB Betting

Unlike other futures markets, MLB odds are a different ballgame given the lengthy season (and then some). Although many “preseason contenders” have started slow, there’s still plenty of time to make up ground and fight back into the playoff race. Below are MLB futures to consider in that regard.

Click anywhere below to bet on World Series odds. The prices below are the best available in your state.

Toronto Blue jays (15-17, fourth in al east):

Last year, the playoff-bound Blue Jays finished with a hair-above-average 102 wRC+ in RISP situations after ranking below average in the first half. Entering Friday, Toronto has hit a league-worst .260 wOBA with runners in scoring position. For context, the lowly Chicago White Sox are even two spots higher. Granted, the Blue Jays are dead last in BABIP with runners in scoring position (.233), indicating a dose of bad luck in the process.

According to tjStuff+, which calculates a pitch’s expected run value (xRV), the Blue Jays have also taken on the second-hardest pitching across MLB. They trail only the Los Angeles Angels in this category. In particular, Toronto slugger Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has faced some of the league’s toughest pitching, sitting atop the individual leaderboard in opponents’ tjStuff+.

Entering the year, John Schneider’s club owned the eighth-best World Series odds, with one of the league’s better rotations on paper. It rates league average thus far, compiling a slightly below-average xFIP. Assuming Alek Manoah returns to form after dealing with shoulder soreness to begin the 2024 season, it should only improve in that department. If the bats follow suit versus less arduous pitching (cough, Guerrero Jr., cough), Toronto could make a run — at least in the wild-card race.

Admittedly, Justin Turner strung together a red-hot April in his first season in The Six. But the carry-over elsewhere has me erring on the side of caution for Toronto’s MLB betting odds.

mlb odds: free contest

San Francisco Giants (15-17, third in NL West):

Speaking of upper-echelon arms, the Giants have a plethora. Despite Logan Webb (2.81 FIP) and Jordan Hicks (3.08 FIP) doing their part early on, the same can’t be said for the newly-signed Blake Snell (4.59 FIP), who recently landed on the IL with Cy Young winner Robbie Ray and Alex Cobb. Kyle Harrison, an NL Rookie of the Year nominee, has shown positive signs lately to help fill the void. Once Snell, Ray, and Cobb return, San Francisco will boast arguably the most starting pitching depth in baseball.

Combine that with an improved bullpen, led by closer Camilo Doval, and an above-average defense, and you wonder why the Giants are off to a subpar start.

Like the Blue Jays, their offense has scuffled, tallying the 10th-fewest runs per game. They’ve avoided punching out at a high rate, yet their 23rd-ranked ISO leaves much to be desired. Beyond Matt Chapman and Jorge Soler, they lack thump among their top bats. However, a top-10 hard-hit rate is a favorable sign for the near future.

For one, Korean slugger Jung Ho Lee, who inked a six-year, $113 million deal with the Giants in the offseason, has manufactured the third-highest percentage of swings producing hard contact (a minimum of 50 batted balls). He’s even ahead of Los Angeles Dodgers superstar Shoehei Ohtani in this category. But Ho Lee has only generated a .298 wOBA, slotting in below the likes of Luis Campusano, the San Diego Padres’ part-time backstop. The leadoff man is due for a string of hits, which would inevitably spark San Francisco’s lineup.

MLB Odds Conclusion

At a minimum, odds to reach the postseason (presumably via a wild-card berth) are worthwhile. Longshot World Series odds are also intriguing. As of this publishing, +7000 is the best number available in that market. I’ve targeted both for my picks on MLB odds.

BetsUnits
Giants To Make Playoffs (+230)0.30
Giants To Win World Series (+7000)0.05

While the National League is loaded, we’ve seen teams with elite pitching make deep runs in previous seasons, like the 2019 Washington Nationals, overcoming a sluggish start. For reference, the Giants’ World Series odds opened the campaign at +4000. They have a big four-game series on deck with the Philadelphia Phillies, which could shorten these odds if they’re up to the task.

Editor’s Note: This article was written before unicorn pitch-framer Patrick Bailey (concussion) was placed on the seven-day injured list.

MLB betting Odds

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