MLB Betting Odds: Eli’s World Series Futures Bet, AL Rookie of the Year Oddity

Given the length of the regular season, MLB odds are different from those of sports with shorter seasons, like the NFL, when approaching futures betting. While some “preseason contenders” have been inconsistent, this could represent a buy-low opportunity. Below is my latest MLB betting pick in the futures market. I also dive into the rarity within the American League Rookie of the Year odds board.

Click on any MLB odds in this article to place a wager. The best available World Series odds are below.

MLB betting: buy low on San Diego Padres?

When the 2024 campaign began, the Padres were lined at +4500 to win the Fall Classic. A few weeks ahead, the addition of ex-White Sox ace Dylan Cease caused their odds to shorten slightly. Before trading Juan Soto to the Yankees in early December, they were in the +2000 ballpark.

San Diego is one game above .500 after winning the series against the Dodgers over the weekend. It’s a game ahead of the Nationals and Mets for the final NL wild-card spot.

During the Padres’ mediocre start, they’ve faced the ninth-most difficult schedule. That includes 20 games against teams above .500. The Phillies, which boast an MLB-best 28-13 record, have only endured six games of that variety. Conversely, Mike Shildt’s club is tied for the sixth-easiest schedule remaining, making it a prime spot to wager on San Diego’s World Series futures odds if you believe in the long-term upside.

Padres’ Pitching Assessment

With veteran Yu Darvish rediscovering his command following a mid-April IL stint, the rotation is among the National League’s best.

Darvish owns a 1.75 FIP in his last three outings, including seven innings of no-run ball in Sunday’s win over the Dodgers. He’s also let up just one barrel this year, meaning opponents’ bats have regularly failed to tally an exit velocity of at least 98 mph at ideal launch angles.

The aforementioned Cease is in the NL Cy Young conversation at Dylan Cease +20000 on Consensus. After regressing in his final season with the White Sox, he has rebounded with 2.19 ERA, 2.26 FIP, and 2.79 xERA through eight outings. Cease is even tied for the fifth-most whiffs (52) among starting pitchers. Assuming Joe Musgrove finds his footing after returning from the IL, the Padres may only need to reinforce their bullpen by the trade deadline.

San Diego’s relief pitchers haven’t supplied much steadiness beyond closer Robert Suarez and Andrew Morejon. The latter hasn’t faced many high-leverage opportunities. Nevertheless, Padres general manager AJ Preller isn’t shy about dealing away prospects, including the recent acquisition of Luis Arráez.

Recent Addition Bolsters Lineup

Fernando Tatis Jr. & Co. generated their fair share of barrels with and without Arráez, ranking above league average in ISO and slugging percentage. However, the newcomer provides a different variable. Arráez constitutes one of the league’s premier leadoff bats, placing in the 99th percentile in whiff rate, 96th percentile in launch-angle sweet spot, and 94th percentile in expected batting average.

Before nabbing the ex-Marlins and Twins infielder, the Padres rotated Xander Bogaerts and Jurickson Profar in the leadoff spot. Neither comes close to Arráez’s stability. If Tatis, an NL MVP candidate, and Manny Machado heat up now that San Diego’s schedule is softening, the Padres are primed to see their World Series odds shorten in the coming weeks.

I’d bet the Padres at +5500 or better. I wagered 0.20 units on these futures odds. Their best price on the board is San Diego Padres +500 on Bet365.

The Mason Miller Conundrum

Oakland A’s closer Mason Miller has made 13 appearances in 2024, including eight saves. He’s accumulated a 1.17 ERA, an elite -0.17 FIP, and a 55% strikeout rate.

According to Baseball Reference, Miller exceeded rookie limits last season, seemingly making him ineligible for the 2024 AL Rookie of the Year award. However, that isn’t a clear-cut notion, as Jim Bowden of The Athletic rated him No. 1 in his latest rankings.

Before FanDuel Sportsbook added Miller to this market on May 8, bet365 was the only other operator that listed Miller among AL Rookie of the Year odds. On April 17, he opened at +6500, priced among many rookies yet to play this year. At that point, Baltimore Orioles outfielder Colton Cowser was the favorite, which mostly remains the case. Texas Rangers outfielder Evan Carter was also priced as the co-favorite at that juncture.

Carter’s slash line is a measly .211/.303/.416, with five home runs. Wyatt Langford, Carter’s teammate with the Texas Rangers, had a .588 OPS and a single long ball before being placed on the IL on May 5.

As of this publication, Caesars and FanDuel are the only sportsbooks showcasing Miller within their AL Rookie of the Year markets. In fact, bet365 pulled him from the board entirely. Thus far, neither BetMGM nor DraftKings has acknowledged his standing.

There’s also the chance Miller will be traded, possibly pivoting to the Phillies or Braves. To place a wager, just click on any AL Rookie of the Year odds below.

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