Last season, the Cincinnati Reds would’ve punched a playoff ticket had the league employed its newfound, 12-team format. But MLB betting has taken a toll on the franchise in 2022 after parting ways with a handful of talented pieces.
David Bell’s bunch owns a 3-22 record (as of May 6) — the worst start to an MLB season since the 2003 Detroit Tigers, which also tallied three wins through 25 games. The 1988 Baltimore Orioles possess the worst 25-game start in the MLB’s modern era (since 1900), delivering a 2-23 mark.
So how much money have bettors made if they’ve chosen to take pleasure in Cincinnati’s cataclysmic club?
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MLB Betting Operation: Fade The Reds
Let’s use a $100 bettor to make things simple. If you wagered that amount on the moneyline for each of the Reds’ opponents this season, you’d be up $1,034 — good for a +41.36% ROI (return on investment). But the fun doesn’t stop there.
Using that same stake, a bettor would’ve gone 19-6 (76.0%) thus far by betting against Cincinnati on the run line in every game. That’d be equivalent to a $1,294 profit, along with a +51.76% ROI. It’s on pace to go 39-123 in this category.
Dissecting Queen City’s Deficiencies
To no one’s surprise, the Reds have generated the lowest collective wRC+ across MLB. Maybe their offensive “luck” will turn around once their 26th-ranked BABIP (batting average on balls in play) rises, yet Tommy Pham & Co. haven’t helped their cause via impatient at-bats. Plus, their pitching has failed to hold up their end of the bargain.
Moreover, Cincinnati showcases the highest FIP (6.01) among all starting rotations — 1.12 points higher than the next-worst team. Righty Tyler Mahle is a fine starting pitcher, but he’s not an ace. Luis Castillo’s shoulder injury has kept him out of the mix entirely, too.
Combine that with the third-lowest bullpen FIP and a blood-boiling defense, and their struggles aren’t leaving the yard anytime soon.
That doesn’t mean there won’t be a buy-low opportunity with Bell’s team. Nevertheless, you’re better off fading Cincinnati here and there, or staying away until the ideal matchup comes along.