There’s Profitable, And Then There’s Fading The Reds

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 6, 2022
MLB Betting

Last season, the Cincinnati Reds would’ve punched a playoff ticket had the league employed its newfound, 12-team format. But MLB betting has taken a toll on the franchise in 2022 after parting ways with a handful of talented pieces.

David Bell’s bunch owns a 3-22 record (as of May 6) ⁠— the worst start to an MLB season since the 2003 Detroit Tigers, which also tallied three wins through 25 games. The 1988 Baltimore Orioles possess the worst 25-game start in the MLB’s modern era (since 1900), delivering a 2-23 mark.

So how much money have bettors made if they’ve chosen to take pleasure in Cincinnati’s cataclysmic club?

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MLB Betting Operation: Fade The Reds

Let’s use a $100 bettor to make things simple. If you wagered that amount on the moneyline for each of the Reds’ opponents this season, you’d be up $1,034 — good for a +41.36% ROI (return on investment). But the fun doesn’t stop there.

Using that same stake, a bettor would’ve gone 19-6 (76.0%) thus far by betting against Cincinnati on the run line in every game. That’d be equivalent to a $1,294 profit, along with a +51.76% ROI. It’s on pace to go 39-123 in this category.

Dissecting Queen City’s Deficiencies

To no one’s surprise, the Reds have generated the lowest collective wRC+ across MLB. Maybe their offensive “luck” will turn around once their 26th-ranked BABIP (batting average on balls in play) rises, yet Tommy Pham & Co. haven’t helped their cause via impatient at-bats. Plus, their pitching has failed to hold up their end of the bargain.

Moreover, Cincinnati showcases the highest FIP (6.01) among all starting rotations — 1.12 points higher than the next-worst team. Righty Tyler Mahle is a fine starting pitcher, but he’s not an ace. Luis Castillo’s shoulder injury has kept him out of the mix entirely, too.

Combine that with the third-lowest bullpen FIP and a blood-boiling defense, and their struggles aren’t leaving the yard anytime soon.

The Reds’ odds to miss the playoffs (-2000) reflect that. Keep in mind, only the Rangers and Diamondbacks (-5000) have a higher chance of failing to claim a postseason ticket.

That doesn’t mean there won’t be a buy-low opportunity with Bell’s team. Nevertheless, you’re better off fading Cincinnati here and there, or staying away until the ideal matchup comes along.

Continue the discussion in our MLB Discord betting chat, where bettors discuss all of their favorite MLB futures bets and daily wagers. You can also follow TheLines on Twitter.

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich