With the 2023 MLB just about underway, let’s continue mining for some MLB futures betting value. After breaking down a longshot AL MVP candidate, I’ve shifted my attention to AL Cy Young odds. Let’s hone in on the market as a whole, along with why Twins starter Joe Ryan has the potential to make a quantum leap in this race.
Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.
Best Available AL Cy Young Odds
Assessing The Favorites
With ex-Mets ace Jacob deGrom () packing his bags for Arlington, Texas, there are an abundance of big-name hurlers at the top of this MLB betting market. However, the everlasting uncertainty around deGrom is whether or not he’ll stay healthy. Despite tossing six innings of two-run ball in New York’s lone wild-card round victory over the Padres, he’s only tallied 38 starts over the last three seasons.
Although Gerrit Cole () saw both his fastball and curveball spin rate remain in the upper-echelon ranks in 2022 (via Baseball Savant), his price tag is slightly overvalued because of his Yankee pinstripes. Then, there’s “budding” White Sox starter Dylan Cease (), who’s in for a bit of regression if his 10.4% walk rate (highest among qualified starters last season) doesn’t dip this time around.
Spring training injuries to Carlos Rodon and Triston McKenzie are worth noting, too. Hence, there are certainly enough grounds to dig for a longshot candidate in this MLB betting market. Let’s head way north — literally.
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MLB Futures Longshot Betting
My colleague Mo Nuwwarah already detailed why the Twins () could arguably represent the favorite in the AL Central. Despite that notion, they’re as much as 85 cents behind the Guardians in the market. But like Mo, I’ve donated to the Minnesota charity foundation for a second consecutive season.
In order for Rocco Baldelli’s club to accomplish that feat, it’ll require a finer impact from its rotation. The Twins’ starting arms collectively delivered a below-average FIP and xERA, respectively. Acquiring former Marlins righty Pablo Lopez will inevitably aid those categories — especially if his negative variance (per his 2022 peripherals) evens out.
Nevertheless, Lopez () is priced into the AL Cy Young market accordingly. Enter the aforementioned Ryan, whose odds are still in the triple digits at FanDuel Sportsbook. The rest of the nationwide legal sportsbooks have him set near +5000.
The 26-year-old sophomore has yet to showcase an overpowering four-seamer, yet his velo increased considerably for that pitch type during spring training. With that said, only Aaron Nola and Justin Verlander had a lower batting average against than Ryan’s fastball in 2022. The latter nugget exhibits his ceiling if his latest sample size is sustainable. Keep in mind, he also notched a top-30 xERA (3.57) among starters with at least 140 innings last season.
Plus, Ryan tacked on sweeping slider and split-changeup in the offseason. His original changeup was distancing itself from his four-seamer by just 5 to 6 inches off the plate. His streamlined version is reportedly all the way down to 1,300 revolutions per minute (RPM), signifying its enhanced spin rate.
Given Ryan’s gaudy ceiling, his +10000 MLB betting odds make for an intriguing wager.
Best available price:
Related: 2023 World Series Odds
