Wednesday MLB Bets: Fried, Braves Undervalued In Finale Vs. Brewers?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 17, 2022
MLB Betting

Throughout the season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game breakdowns. Let’s dive into the MLB betting market for the rubber match of a three-game series between the Brewers and Braves.

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MLB Betting: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Atlanta Braves

Following shutout wins for each team, NL Cy Young candidates Corbin Burnes () and Max Fried () square off in another enticing pitching matchup towards the beginning of the season.

Burnes possesses a 1.77 ERA in his first seven starts, yet his 2.97 FIP and 2.88 xERA are both notably higher. His opponents’ barrel percentage, which indicates whether hitters are churning out well-struck balls at a consistent rate, is also up a staggering 6.6 percentage points from his 2021 Cy Young campaign.

Moreover, the Braves’ offense owns the 11th-highest efficiency versus cutters (via FanGraphs) — Burnes’ primary pitch type, which he utilizes at a 54.9% clip. Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna and Dansby Swanson have delivered the most success against it in particular.

Meanwhile, Fried has begun to flip the script after a slow start, showcasing a 3.14 ERA with a 2.82 FIP and 3.49 xERA overall. The southpaw’s velocity has rounded into form, aiding his recent performances.

The Brewers’ bats could very well adjust following a one-run showing versus Fried on May 7. But they’ve generated the seventh-lowest efficiency versus curveballs, which Fried employs as his secondary pitch (23.6%). His curveball spin rate ranks within the 78th percentile, leading to Milwaukee’s struggles this season and in the 2021 playoffs.

To make matters worse, Milwaukee has accrued the 10th-lowest wRC+ against lefties. With its offensive inconsistency and the other variables in mind, let’s back the road underdog in this one.

Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds board
Eli’s MLB Betting Pick:  

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