Wednesday MLB Bets: Value with Marlins’ Alcantara vs. Diamondbacks?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 11, 2022 - Last Updated on May 12, 2022
MLB Betting

Throughout the season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dig into the MLB betting market for the final of a three-game series between the Diamondbacks and the Marlins.

MLB Betting: Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Miami Marlins

Even after Arizona took the first two games against Miami, the betting market is backing the road team a bit () following a -105 opener on the moneyline. That’s because Sandy Alcantara opposes Merrill Kelly in a bounce-back spot — for himself and his team.

Not only have the Marlins dropped 9 of their last 10 games, but Alcantara’s peripherals (3.95 FIP and 3.13 xERA) also aren’t impressive. Couple that with his velocity dipping a tad in his first six starts of the campaign, and his inconsistency isn’t surprising. But that should naturally tick back up as the season progresses.

Plus, the 26-year-old’s four-seam fastball usage (30.9%) is up 9.6 percentage points from the 2021 campaign. The Diamondbacks’ lineup possess the league’s eighth-lowest efficiency against that pitch type (via FanGraphs). They’ve struggled against changeups too, which Alcantara delivers 21.6% of the time.

While Alcantara doesn’t necessarily showcase a primary pitch, expect the righty to attack Arizona’s bats with those two in particular, considering it ranks above average versus the sinker and slider.

On the flip side, Jazz Chisholm Jr. & Co. own the ninth-rated efficiency against four-seam fastballs while slotting in at No. 16 versus changeups. Those are Kelly’s two most-employed pitches.

Look for Miami’s offense, which holds its own against righties in regards to wRC+, to back Alcantara in this one. I’ll be on the Marlins as a result.

Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds board
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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich