Monday MLB Bets: Giant Bounce-Back Spot In San Fran?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 23, 2022 - Last Updated on May 24, 2022
MLB Betting

Throughout the season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game breakdowns. Let’s dive into the MLB betting market for the first of a three-game series between the Giants and Mets.

MLB Betting: San Francisco Giants vs. New York Mets

Although San Francisco is in the midst of a four-game losing skid, there’s reason to believe Gabe Kapler’s bunch can flip the script on Monday evening against New York, which boasts the fourth-shortest World Series odds.

Backing the Mets (+120) may initially seem like an attractive play, but their starter Drew Peterson has outperformed his peripherals in his first four outings of the 2022 campaign. The southpaw owns an impressive 1.89 ERA, yet his 3.36 FIP and 3.72 xERA both showcase that negative variance could be headed his way.

Moreover, Peterson’s opponents have compiled a collective .235 BABIP (batting average on balls in play), ranking below the league average. That metric further indicates how much luck a pitcher is garnering.

The 26-year-old southpaw relies on his four-seam fastball (33.2%), along with mixing in a sinker (16.2%). Meanwhile, the Giants’ lineup boasts the league’s highest efficiency against the latter pitch type, as well as the eighth-highest efficiency versus fastballs (via FanGraphs). Despite the loss of first baseman Brandon Belt (IL), look for San Francisco’s bats to wake up after tallying a combined two runs over their last two games.

Market Isn’t Overvaluing Alex Cobb

San Francisco’s starter is essentially the opposite of Peterson, accruing a 5.61 ERA while his 1.75 xERA and 2.67 FIP prove that he’s actually pitched quite well. The betting market agrees, as the moneyline price hasn’t shifted towards the Mets since it opened on Sunday evening.

Pete Alonso & Co. represent one of the most potent lineups in MLB — exhibited by their sixth-ranked wRC+ against righties. Nevertheless, look for the underrated Cobb and a sound bullpen to keep up their end of the bargain.

Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s MLB Betting Pick:  

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich