Tuesday MLB Betting: Giants’ Rodon Undervalued vs. Dodgers?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on May 3, 2022 - Last Updated on May 4, 2022
MLB Betting

Throughout the MLB season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dig into the MLB odds that showcase value for the first of the Dodgers-Giants’ three-game series.

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MLB Betting: Dodgers vs. Giants Odds

After a thrilling, five-game series in last year’s NLDS, the Dodgers and Giants will renew their rivalry for the first time in the 2022 campaign. And the Giants get to open with Carlos Rodon.

The former White Sox southpaw signed a two-year, $44 million deal with San Francisco in the offseason, and he’s one of the favorites to win the NL Cy Young () after an electrifying start to the season.

Rodon boasts a 1.17 ERA to pair with a 43.2% strikeout rate through his four outings. His 0.95 FIP and 1.76 xERA substantiate that he hasn’t relied upon good fortune, either. Moreover, Rodon’s fastball velocity (96.3 mph) is up nearly a full point from last season, so he hasn’t needed much time to find his peak form like the typical starting pitcher.

Pitch Type Vulnerability?

Not only does Los Angeles own the 18th-ranked wRC+ against lefties, but they’re also generating a below-average efficiency versus four-seam fastballs and sliders (via FanGraphs’ pitch value) — Rodon’s two primary pitches. Although the Dodgers present one of the most prolific lineups in baseball, Rodon looks set up for success.

On the flip side, Julio Urias’ FIP (4.36) sits almost two points higher than his ERA (2.50) through his first four starts of the campaign. While that doesn’t necessarily guarantee negative regression, his opponents’ BABIP (.170) indicates that he’s been gifted quite a bit of luck thus far.

Moreover, the Giants’ bats deliver a top-10 efficiency against Urias’ most utilized pitches — the four-seam fastball and curveball.

Even though San Francisco sits right behind Los Angeles in regards to wRC+ versus left-handed pitchers and has recently struggled against Urias, Gabe Kapler’s club is still undervalued from a price standpoint.

Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds board
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Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich