Thursday’s MLB Betting Guide: Giants Undervalued at Dodgers?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on July 21, 2022 - Last Updated on July 22, 2022
MLB Betting

Following the All-Star break, a critical NL West series begins between the Dodgers and Giants. My MLB betting guide for the first of a four-game set is below. Click on any of the odds to place a wager.

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MLB Betting: San Francisco Giants at Los Angeles Dodgers

With the Dodgers’ World Series odds near the top of the board, they’ll be a decently sized favorite in nearly every game. In fact, Los Angeles broke a 150-game streak of being favored in June 2021.

However, the Giants possess an advantage on the mound and at the dish, respectively, and it starts with NL Cy Young contender Carlos Rodon (). The All-Star snub boasts a 2.66 ERA, but his 2.14 FIP showcases his true first-half dominance.

Related: Are Dylan Cease’s AL Cy Young Odds Worth Betting?

Rodon also owns the second-highest fWAR (3.8) among all starting pitchers — behind only Sandy Alcantara.

The southpaw’s command plagues him at times, and Freddie Freeman & Co. represent one of the league’s most patient lineups. But their wRC+ against lefties is still 11 points lower than the other way around.

Moreover, the Dodgers’ bats showcase the 12th-lowest efficiency versus the slider — Rodon’s wipeout pitch. Considering he’ll oppose Mitch White and his lowly 4.22 xERA, the Giants certainly have the pitching edge on paper.

Will San Francisco’s Lineup Continue Surge?

Gabe Kapler’s crew broke out right before the break, delivering a collective 118 wRC+ versus the Brewers’ sound pitching staff. It’ll now square off against the four-seam fastball-friendly White, which the Giants’ offense manufactures the fifth-highest efficiency against that pitch type.

In particular, Joc Pederson and Thairo Estrada own a top 30 efficiency among all hitters with at least 200 at bats, so expect that to carry over Thursday evening.

San Francisco’s above-average bullpen gives me enough comfort to back them full-game, too, so I’m going that route with my MLB betting strategy.

Best Available Line: TheLines’ 2022 MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s MLB Bet:

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Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich