Throughout the season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s dig into the MLB betting market for the first of a three-game series between the Brewers and Marlins.
MLB Betting: Milwaukee Brewers vs. Miami Marlins
In one of the premier pitching matchups of the early 2022 campaign, Corbin Burnes — the National League Cy Young favorite () — faces fellow contender Pablo Lopez ().
Not only did Burnes claim the award last season, but he’s backed it up with a 1.86 ERA and 2.99 FIP through six outings thus far. Unlike many starters, the 27-year-old relies on his cutter a 56.6% rate.
Burnes possesses overpowering stuff, yet the Marlins’ lineup is generating the ninth-highest efficiency against that pitch type (via FanGraphs). Although their bats have struggled to provide run support at times, they own the 10th-highest wRC+ versus right-handed pitchers. Expect for Joey Wendle & Co. to produce enough offense against Burnes.
Per a report, Wendle’s departure from Wednesday’s win at the Diamondbacks was precautionary despite the initial hamstring concern. Among all hitters, the third baseman ranks No. 36 in efficiency versus cutters.
Will Milwaukee’s Offensive Production Dip?
As for Lopez, I’ve already bet the 26-year-old to win the award. His 2.21 FIP proves his 1.00 ERA isn’t due for much regression, and his four-seam fastball velocity is still a point lower than the 2021 campaign. It should only increase as the season goes along.
The four-seam fastball (39.5%) and curveball (36.8%) are Lopez’s most-utilized pitch types. Keep in mind, Brewers’ bats have dominated fastballs this season, thanks to the likes of Christian Yelich, Rowdy Tellez and Andrew McCutchen.
Nevertheless, Milwaukee’s ninth-ranked wRC+ is a bit inflated, as it’s faced the Cubs, Pirates and Reds in 19 of its 32 games. All of their pitching staffs showcase a bottom-six FIP across MLB. Let’s back Miami as a home underdog with a top-tier pitcher on its side.
Best Available Line: Check our MLB odds board
Eli’s MLB Betting Pick: