Friday MLB Betting: Tyler Mahle Undervalued In Twins Debut?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on August 5, 2022 - Last Updated on August 6, 2022
MLB Betting

In the second of a four-game set between the Blue Jays and Twins — with Toronto winning on Thursday evening — let’s delve into my MLB betting pick. Keep in mind, this series is vital for both teams amid their playoff push. Click any of the odds below to place a bet.

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MLB Betting: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins

Tyler Mahle Back On Right Track

After undergoing plenty of negative variance at the beginning of the 2022 campaign, Mahle — one the most underrated additions amidst the MLB trade deadline — makes his first start for Minnesota after Cincinnati dealt him to the North Star State.

Although the 27-year-old righty owns a tasteless 4.40 ERA, it’s dipped 1.92 points over his last nine outings. That’s a product of 3.22 xERA as well, proving he’s performed a cut above his traditional metrics.

Plus, Mahle’s spin rate, which is measured by the amount of spin that a pitch has en route to home plate, has seen a spike for his entire arsenal in July. Essentially, his pitch deception is increasing, making it more difficult for opponents to generate hard contact.

Mahle Spin Rate

(Photo Credit: Baseball Savant)

Despite Toronto possessing one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, along with tallying a top-10 run value against the four-seam fastball and splitter (via FanGraphs) — Mahle’s two primary pitches — he’s still underpriced because of his refined stuff. The same can’t be said for his counterpart.

Related: 2022 World Series Odds

Jose Berrios On Opposite End Of Luck

Unlike Mahle, Berrios doesn’t have much positive variance heading his way, showcasing a 5.20 xERA to go along with his lowly 4.96 ERA.

On top of that, Minnesota’s lineup boasts a top-10 run value versus the curveball, four-seam fastball and sinker, which are Berrios’ three most utilized pitches. Look for the Twins’ bats, led by All-Star center fielder Byron Buxton, to continue their success against the ex-Minnesota starter.

Considering their bullpen upgrades at the deadline, I’m willing to back Rocco Baldelli’s bunch full-game.

Best Available Line: TheLines’ MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s Bet:

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Eli Hershkovich Avatar
Written by
Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich