In the second of a four-game set between the Blue Jays and Twins — with Toronto winning on Thursday evening — let’s delve into my MLB betting pick. Keep in mind, this series is vital for both teams amid their playoff push. Click any of the odds below to place a bet.
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MLB Betting: Toronto Blue Jays at Minnesota Twins
Tyler Mahle Back On Right Track
After undergoing plenty of negative variance at the beginning of the 2022 campaign, Mahle — one the most underrated additions amidst the MLB trade deadline — makes his first start for Minnesota after Cincinnati dealt him to the North Star State.
Although the 27-year-old righty owns a tasteless 4.40 ERA, it’s dipped 1.92 points over his last nine outings. That’s a product of 3.22 xERA as well, proving he’s performed a cut above his traditional metrics.
Plus, Mahle’s spin rate, which is measured by the amount of spin that a pitch has en route to home plate, has seen a spike for his entire arsenal in July. Essentially, his pitch deception is increasing, making it more difficult for opponents to generate hard contact.
(Photo Credit: Baseball Savant)
Despite Toronto possessing one of the most dangerous lineups in baseball, along with tallying a top-10 run value against the four-seam fastball and splitter (via FanGraphs) — Mahle’s two primary pitches — he’s still underpriced because of his refined stuff. The same can’t be said for his counterpart.
Related: 2022 World Series Odds
Jose Berrios On Opposite End Of Luck
Unlike Mahle, Berrios doesn’t have much positive variance heading his way, showcasing a 5.20 xERA to go along with his lowly 4.96 ERA.
On top of that, Minnesota’s lineup boasts a top-10 run value versus the curveball, four-seam fastball and sinker, which are Berrios’ three most utilized pitches. Look for the Twins’ bats, led by All-Star center fielder Byron Buxton, to continue their success against the ex-Minnesota starter.
Considering their bullpen upgrades at the deadline, I’m willing to back Rocco Baldelli’s bunch full-game.
Best Available Line: TheLines’ MLB odds comparison tool
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