MLB Bets: Will Red Sox Snap Losing Skid Vs. Yankees?

Written By Eli Hershkovich on July 9, 2022 - Last Updated on July 11, 2022
MLB Bets

After the Yankees won the first two matchups of their four-game set at the Red Sox, let’s dive into my MLB bets for another round of this American League East rivalry. Click on any of the odds below to place a wager.

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MLB Bets: New York Yankees at Boston Red Sox

The World Series favorites () will send lefty Jordan Montgomery to the mound in this one. The 29-year-old boasts a respectable 3.19 ERA in 16 outings, yet his 3.92 xERA and 3.75 FIP suggest he’s a bit more vulnerable.

Montgomery’s strikeout rate (19.8%) has also sunk 4.7 percentage points from last season. His lack of deception has played a role in his opponent’s expected batting average (xBA), a Statcast metric that measures the likelihood that a batted ball will become a hit, descending from the 39th percentile (already on the lower end of the spectrum) to the 23rd percentile.

Can Boston’s Lineup Take Advantage?

For starters, the Red Sox own the league’s second-highest collective wRC+ against southpaws. They’ve notched a top 10 efficiency against the changeup and curveball (via Fangraphs), Montgomery’s two most utilized pitches, too.

Keep in mind, Red Sox slugger Rafael Devers is expected to miss this game with a back injury. But Devers ranks No. 5 among Boston’s bats in regards to individual wRC+ versus lefties, as the surprising Rob Refsnyder and J.D. Martinez lead the way. Hence, there’s still more than enough potency to harm Montgomery.

Trust Kutter Crawford, Red Sox’s Bullpen?

As a consequence of Boston’s injury-riddled staff, it’ll start its fourth consecutive rookie pitcher in Crawford. He’s fairly reliant on his four-seam fastball (44.4%), and it actually ranks in the 86th percentile of fastball spin.

Crawford showcases a 3.82 FIP since moving to the rotation on June 12. His 108 Stuff+, measuring the quality of a pitcher’s stuff based on the physical characteristics of his pitches, is intriguing enough to back against the Yankees’ elite lineup as well.

Despite the Red Sox’s vulnerability to blown saves this season, their relief corps has tallied the No. 13 collective FIP overall. I’m willing to go with the full-game moneyline as a result — in hopes that they snap their four-game losing streak.

Best Available Line: TheLines’ MLB odds comparison tool
Eli’s MLB Bets:

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Eli Hershkovich

Eli Hershkovich is a lead sports betting writer with TheLines and Catena Media, formerly with Audacy and The Action Network. His goal is to provide you with data and information to lead you to winning bets. Eli is an avid college basketball gambler — among many other sports — and still hasn't forgiven Virginia for ruining his 2018-2019 Texas Tech futures.

View all posts by Eli Hershkovich