Over the course of an MLB season, bettors have the opportunity to wager on thousands of games. Inevitably, there’s some value to be found out there. During the past several years, I’ve had success with MLB bets. So, I’ll share my daily plays here along with videos for those who prefer multimedia formats. Each game will have a few brief notes explaining my thoughts.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
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Best MLB Bets For Tuesday, April 18
Philadelphia Phillies At Chicago White Sox
Notes for this game:
- Lance Lynn is still missing bats, but he’s struggling with weak velocity (92.3 FBvelo, down from 93 last year which was itself down 1 mph from prior seasons) and loud contact. Batters are hammering him for 91.1 mph exit velocity and an 11.4% barrel rate, which I think might continue unless he starts throwing harder.
- It’s difficult to see where the White Sox have a meaningful edge in this game. The lineup got Eloy Jimenez back but lost Yoan Moncada, who raked early in the season.
- This is a rerun from a rainout yesterday, where I bet the Phillies at a worse number.
Texas Rangers At Kansas City Royals
Notes for this game:
- Nate Eovaldi is doing Nate Eovaldi things but has been very unlucky. Ignore his 6.32 ERA as he’s actually been better than ever in the very early going, missing tons of bats but getting victimized by a .444 BABIP and 57.5 LOB%.
- Brad Keller looks like is trying to reinvent himself as he has vastly change his pitch mix. However, he’s struggling to command his new arsenal, with a bloated 11.6% walk rate.
- Texas does not have a good lineup but they are quite patient, ranking 28th in O-Swing%.
- Kansas City has one of the worst offenses so far, ranking at the bottom of the league in wOBA, slugging and batting average.
Current best price on Rangers:
Atlanta Braves At San Diego Padres
Notes for this game:
- Spencer Strider has been dominant once again for the Braves, even increasing his swinging strike rate and overall strikeout rate. He’s walking more guys, but due to a jump in first-strike rate, I don’t believe it will continue.
- Blake Snell is off to a really rough start. He’s allowing a 90.8 mph exit velocity while hitting the zone at an atrocious 40.2% rate. Last year, it took several months before he shook off a slow early start like this.
- While Atlanta has pretty poor discipline, they do still take a fair amount of walks, ranking eighth in BB%.
- Atlanta spent its top pen option with AJ Minter working the last couple of days. However, Nick Anderson looks all the way back and might even be a better option is he’s really his old self.
Current best price on Braves:
