Over the course of an MLB season, bettors have the opportunity to wager on thousands of games. Inevitably, there’s some value to be found out there. During the past several years, I’ve had success with MLB bets. So, I’ll share my daily plays here along with videos for those who prefer multimedia formats. Each game will have a few brief notes explaining my thoughts.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
FREE Home Run Bingo! Pick four MLB home run hitters every day and compete for daily and monthly prizes.
Best MLB Bets For Monday, April 10
Houston Astros At Pittsburgh Pirates
Notes for this game:
- Not only does Framber Valdez remain perhaps the premier contact manager in the game with his negative launch angle and career 66.2 GB%, he’s throwing harder at 95 mph early this season. That has resulted in a career-best 32.4 called strike+whiff%.
- Pittsburgh has lost Oneil Cruz for several months to a broken ankle. He’s likely the best or second-best player on the team. His loss should have a huge impact on the offense and maybe also the defense.
- The Astros offense is off to a rough start with a 93 wRC+. That should come way up with time.
- Currently, a couple of sportsbooks have -180 on Houston, which is as far as I’d go with this line.
Current best price on Astros:
Miami Marlins At Philadelphia Phillies
Notes for this game:
- Philadelphia dipped heavily into its pen the past couple of days. Of their best relievers, only Jose Alvarado might be available here.
- Sandy Alcantara’s early strikeout numbers are a bit rough, but I think the projections still underrate him because he’s so tilted toward contact management. For his career, he has an ERA (3.08) more than half a run better than his estimators.
- Philly’s offense hasn’t been good so far (91 wRC+) and losing Darick Hall further weakens them. JT Realmuto is also out of the lineup today and Bryson Stott is leading off, which doesn’t look great to me.
- The biggest key for me here: Matt Strahm will likely only throw about 70 pitches. Combined with a taxed bullpen and a bad defense, it’s not a great recipe for run prevention on the Phillies side.
- I got in pretty early around -120 but would play up to -130.
Current best price on Marlins:
Boston Red Sox At Tampa Bay Rays
Notes for this game:
- Tampa Bay is off to a blazing start with zero losses thus far. But, keep in mind they’ve played the Nationals, Tigers and A’s so far. Three teams who have performed terribly and projected to be terrible.
- Do I trust Nick Pivetta? Absolutely not. But, I don’t think the Rays have much if any pitching edge with Jalen Beeks (a good reliever) opening for Josh Fleming (a bad starter thus far who has a career 5.1 ERA).
- The Red Sox did lose Adam Duvall from an already thin outfield. He’s maybe been the best hitter in baseball so far, so that hurts.
- Still, I think the line’s a bit too high and would play Boston at +135 or better.
Current best price on Red Sox:
