Throughout the MLB season, I’ll dabble in game-by-game betting breakdowns. Let’s break down my MLB bets for the first of the Mariners-Rangers’ three-game series. You can find the rest of Tuesday’s odds here.
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Seattle Mariners vs. Texas Rangers Odds
Not only are the Mariners coming off a series win against the Astros, increasing their positive standing in the betting market, but they also have Robbie Ray — the 2021 American League Cy Young winner — on the mound. They combine to create some value in the 2-7 Rangers.
After opening as a -145 favorite, Seattle was bet down to as low as -134 moneyline price tag before the market jumped back on Scott Servais’ club. Nevertheless, Ray’s peripherals thus far disagree with the move.
Despite the southpaw notching just two starts under his belt in 2022, his velocity has dipped a full two points on his four-seam fastball. His slider has sunk to 86.7 mph — a 1.4-point differential from last season. His strikeout rate (16.1%) has plummeted as a result.
While the market expects Ray to regain his pitch acceleration, his four-seam fastball usage (59.4%) from a year ago favors Texas if he doesn’t.
Rangers manager Chris Woodward boasts a trio of bats (Corey Seager, Charlie Culberson and Andy Ibáñez) who manufactured a 146 wRC+ or better versus lefties last season. Seager, Nathaniel Lowe and Nick Solak were all considerably efficient against four-seam fastballs, via FanGraphs’ pitch value, too.
Seager is an elite-level hitter, so his name will pop up in most offensive categories. But Texas clearly lines up well elsewhere in this matchup.
Although Rangers starter Jon Gray is a wildcard in his own right, yielding three earned runs over four innings in his first start, the righty’s slider usage (38.1% in the 2021) should produce positive results against the Mariners’ lineup.
Eli’s MLB Bets: Rangers ML (+125 on Caesars Sportsbook)
Best Available Line: Rangers