MLB Best Bets: 3 Teams Worth Considering Friday
Today, I have three wagers in MLB bets, with the best of them looking like the Twins. All are road teams in closely lined games, two favorites and one underdog.
Yesterday, I went 3-1, bringing my season betting total to 133-104, +23.77u, all widely available lines posted in our Discord linked below.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
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Best MLB Bets For Friday, June 23
Minnesota Twins At Detroit Tigers
Notes for this game:
- Kenta Maeda returns from injury for the Twins. He should be able to provide around 5 IP after ramping up to 81 pitches in his last rehab start.
- Maeda’s numbers are ugly but keep in mind he had a 10 ER disaster while pitching hurt that closed the early part of his season. He went on the IL after and it’s likely not representative of his talent level. He had 12 Ks and 0 BB before the two starts in which he pitched hurt.
- The Twins should have a fresh bullpen after Joe Ryan fired a CGSO last time out.
- Minnesota has stunk hitting lefties this year, but I think it’s at least partially bad luck. They have a bottom-five BABIP and were league average against southpaws with a similar lineup last year. And Joey Wentz is bad.
- Detroit sometimes uses an opener ahead of Wentz, so I’d bet this without listing pitchers if you can.
I bet Minnesota at -125, with the best available line now .
New York Mets At Philadelphia Phillies
Notes for this game:
- Kodai Senga has a good matchup here. He throws hard, averaging about 96 mph of fastball velocity. The Phillies struggle with hard four-seamers, posting a .269 xWOBA there.
- Additionally, Senga’s weak point is buckets of free passes. However, the Phils have the third-worst swinging strike rate and the sixth-worst walk rate.
- Senga dominated the Phils to the tune of seven clean with 9 Ks and 0 BB last time he faced them.
- Be aware that there’s risk of a rainout here.
I bet New York at +105, with the best available line now .
Boston Red Sox At Chicago White Sox
Notes for this game:
- This is another where I really like the pitching matchup for Brayan Bello, a player I’ve been higher than the market on all season.
- Primarily, Bello’s strong grounder lean (58.2%) plays very well here against a Chicago lineup that hits more grounders than any other team in baseball.
- Boston will likely be without Alex Verdugo again. Jarren Duran brings a small downgrade here.
- This one is a bit thinner than the other edges, as I wouldn’t recommend going past -115.
I bet Boston at -115, with the best available line now .
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