Thursday MLB Best Bets; Rare DraftKings Sportsbook Baseball Promo
Over the course of an MLB season, bettors have the opportunity to wager on thousands of games. Inevitably, there’s some value to be found out there. During the past several years, I’ve had success with MLB bets. So, I’ll share my daily plays here along with videos for those who prefer multimedia formats. Each game will have a few brief notes explaining my thoughts.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
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Best MLB Bets For Thursday, June 15
Note that in addition to the possible value in the bets below, you can boost your expectation by utilizing DraftKings Sportsbook’s Early Win promo. Essentially, this offers a full payout if the team you bet takes a lead of at least 2 runs at any point in the game. Certain users should have access to this offer, which can be used once per day. In particular, one game I’ll discuss looks like a good fit for the promo.
Colorado Rockies At Atlanta Braves
Notes for this game:
- This bet is mostly about AJ Smith-Shawver. The young Braves call-up has fewer than 30 IP above A-ball. That makes him incredibly difficult to project.
- What Smith-Shawver has done in limited MLB innings does not suggest he’s ready. The 20-year-old has a pathetic swinging strike rate (under 7%), paired with below-average marks in the chase and zone departments. He looks ripe for a blow-up.
- That being said, Kyle Freeland is a mediocre lefty, and the Braves might have the best offense in MLB against southpaws.
- Given the wide range of outcomes and high total, I like several approaches to this one. Alternate lines on the Rockies (-1.5, -2.5) will pay out big, as would parlaying the Rockies with the over.
- A big underdog on the road with a high total also makes this a great option for the Early Win promo.
Current best price on Rockies:
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LA Angels At Texas Rangers
Notes for this game:
- The marquee game of the night, featuring a couple of the top choices in Cy Young odds.
- Shohei Ohtani has killed it in the contact management department to make up for losing some swinging strikes and adding some walks. An 84.7 mph exit velocity is tough to fake over this big a sample.
- If there’s a concern for Ohtani here, his heavy slider usage (more than 40%) doesn’t profile well against the best offense in baseball versus sliders.
- Still, I just don’t buy Nate Eovaldi being anywhere near the mid-2s ERA he has posted thus far. I have him about a run higher than that, which makes the Rangers very slight favorites when factoring in home field, slightly superior offense, and a superior defense.
- I got around +115 which has been bet out of the market. If you can find a price at +110 or above, it’s still worth a small play.
Current best price on Angels:
Sportsbook Promos For MLB Bets
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