Over the course of an MLB season, bettors have the opportunity to wager on thousands of games. Inevitably, there’s some value to be found out there. During the past several years, I’ve had success with MLB bets. So, I’ll share my daily plays here along with videos for those who prefer multimedia formats. Each game will have a few brief notes explaining my thoughts.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
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Best MLB Bets For Thursday, April 20
San Diego Padres At Arizona Diamondbacks
Notes for this game:
- Michael Wacha has an ugly 6.06 ERA and peripherals that aren’t much better. However, I thought his stuff looked fine when the Brewers pounded him last week and he’ll likely pitch like an average starter. Swinging strikes and other metrics look as good or better compared to last year.
- The Padres get Fernando Tatis Jr. back. He’s been terrorizing minor league pitching to a comical degree (294 wRC+) and likely makes this the best lineup in baseball.
- Ryne Nelson doesn’t get any chases (20.5 O-Swing%) and I’m not sure he has a way to get lefties out given his two-pitch mix (only using CH 8% of the time).
- The Padres got steamed some this morning from where I played it and I wouldn’t fire past -145.
Current best price on Padres:
New York Mets At San Francisco Giants
Notes for this game:
- Kodai Senga’s metrics are a mixed bag. Lots of strikeouts and grounders but also heavy on walks and home runs. I tend to think the former stuff looks stickier but we’ll see. One red flag, low chase rate but lots of in-zone whiffs.
- Still, I like him better than Sean Manaea at present. Manaea is throwing much harder partially because he changed his fastball to a four-seamer. However, he’s struggling to command it and allowing tons of barrels (17.2%) with a weak called-strike rate.
- Mets have a 101 wRC+ versus lefties, but they profile as a team that should hit them pretty hard.
- The Giants have a terrible defense and are missing Joc Pederson, one of their best hitters against right-handed pitching.
- This line has bounced around and dipped as low as -115. I like the Mets at -120 or better.
Current best price on Mets: