MLB Best Bets: 4 Teams Worth Considering Tuesday
Today, I have four wagers in MLB bets, although a few other games tempted me as well. It’s mostly favorites, but an underdog snuck in there as well, one that people will surely not be excited to bet.
Yesterday, I went 0-1, bringing my season betting total to 139-109, +24.13u, all widely available lines posted in our Discord linked below.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
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Best MLB Bets For Tuesday, June 27
Cincinnati Reds At Baltimore Orioles
Notes for this game:
- Tyler Wells isn’t as good as his 3.22 ERA but I do have him above average and a decent bit better than Andrew Abbott.
- Wells matches up well against the beefed up Cincy offense due to his pop-up inducements — he has an elite mark there — and the Reds’ extreme penchant for popping up. They rank first in MLB by far in pop-up rate.
- Abbott has been very lucky so far with a .190 BABIP and a 100% (!) left on base rate. I’m projecting him as a roughly average pitcher but his peripherals aren’t good so far.
- The Orioles hit lefties pretty hard, ranking seventh in MLB.
I bet Baltimore at -145, with the best available line now .
Houston Astros At St. Louis Cardinals
Notes for this game:
- I have Framber Valdez as a better pitcher than Jordan Montgomery by quite a distance, about a full run per 9 IP.
- While the Cardinals have a rep as lefty killers, they’ve actually fallen off a lot compared to last year. Houston’s been the better offense vs. southpaws, with a 107 wRC+ to a 102.
- Houston also has a better bullpen. They’re pretty much better than the Cards across the board.
- Given all that, I’m not sure why Houston’s not a bigger favorite. My only real concern here is the Cardinals have crushed lefty sinkers, but the sample is only around 200 pitches.
I bet Houston at -115, with the best available line now .
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Chicago White Sox At LA Angels
Notes for this game:
- Shohei Ohtani has leaned all the way into his slider/sweeper this year, throwing it about 40% of the time.
- The White Sox absolutely stink against right-handed sliders (and right-handed pitching in general). Against the slidepiece specifically, they have a ghastly .246 wOBA and .262 xWOBA.
- A healthy Angels offense is strong (113 wRC+ vs RHP) but they’ve been running out the likes of Chad Wallach, Andrew Velazquez and Luis Rengifo because of injuries. Recent roster moves and trades should shore that up. Today’s projected lineup looks solid.
- I have Michael Kopech a bit stronger than the projections, and I still think the Angels should be bigger favorites.
I bet LA at -185, with the best available line now .
New York Yankees At Oakland A’s
Notes for this game:
- Paul Blackburn has been a big moneymaker for me dating to last season. I’m not sure why the market hasn’t caught on to the idea that he’s good, but I have him projected for better than a 4 ERA.
- Blackburn has a 4.21 ERA this year despite an inflated .382 BABIP. He’s missing more bats after bringing back a slider he mostly shelved last year.
- At present, the Yankees appear to have a terrible offense. They have the worst in baseball in June, essentially encompassing the games without Aaron Judge. The bottom half of the lineup wouldn’t look out of place if they switched uniforms for this one.
- Jhony Brito is pretty rough. I have projected a bit better than replacement level.
I bet Oakland at +118, with the best available line now .
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