Over the course of an MLB season, bettors have the opportunity to wager on thousands of games. Inevitably, there’s some value to be found out there. During the past several years, I’ve had success with MLB bets. So, I’ll share my daily plays here along with videos for those who prefer multimedia formats. Each game will have a few brief notes explaining my thoughts.
Keep in mind that some of these lines will have moved by the time I get around to writing them up. The best way to get in at a good number is to use our MLB odds page and join TheLines.com’s free discord server to see the picks as they’re released. I encourage everyone to get involved in the discussion and, rather than tail anyone’s picks (including mine) without thinking, apply your own judgments as a filter. We have a great community of baseball fans discussing games daily.
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Best MLB Bets For Tuesday, May 9
Toronto Blue Jays At Philadelphia Phillies
Notes for this game:
- Alek Manoah has struggled mightily this season after entering as a Cy Young favorite. While his pitches have lost a bit of movement, the biggest issue appears to be walks as he’s handing out an absurd 5.2 BB/9.
- Luckily for Manoah, the Phillies have one of the most undisciplined lineups so far. They are third in chase rate with the second-worst walk rate.
- Aaron Nola is experiencing his own struggles as well. He has lost three percentage points off his swinging strike rate. I’m less worried about him than Manoah but he isn’t projecting a whole lot better.
- With the better defense and better offense, I think +120 is too high on the Jays and there’s still one of those out there at the time of writing. I’d play down to +115, although I admit betting on Manoah makes me feel a little ill.
Current best price on Blue Jays:
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Houston Astros At LA Angels
Notes for this game:
- Shohei Ohtani has been dynamite once again but gone about it slightly differently. He’s throwing a ton of sliders and getting by on in-zone swings and misses.
- Houston has the third-best zone contact rate in baseball. If they can get the bat to the ball, good things should happen against a mediocre Angels defense.
- The Angels have crushed lefties and profile to continue doing so. However, Framber Valdez has no platoon split and neutralizes right-handed batters very well.
- Once again, I think +120 is too high for the Astros considering they have the more talented lineup, better defense and better bullpen.
Current best price on Astros:
