MLB Awards: AL Cy Young Odds To Shorten Soon For White Sox Longshot?
The first quarter of the MLB season has wrapped up, and AL Cy Young Odds showcase Tigers ace Tarik Skubal as the favorite (). He’s not the only southpaw dominating in the American League, though, as White Sox starter Garrett Crochet is quietly putting together a nice season. Let’s examine AL Cy Young Odds and see if Crochet, currently at , can enter the conversation.
al cy young odds
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key statistical categories
Below is a table showing where some of the top AL Cy Young candidates currently sit in key statistical categories, along with Crochet. For reference, the last four AL Cy Young winners led the league in ERA. In 2019, Justin Verlander won the award but finished second in ERA to his teammate, Gerrit Cole.
| Pitcher | IP | FanGraphs WAR | ERA | FIP | Strikeouts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tarik Skubal | 60 | 2.0 | 2.25 | 1.94 | 72 |
| Corbin Burnes | 59.2 | 1.4 | 2.56 | 3.19 | 60 |
| Cole Ragans | 62 | 1.6 | 3.70 | 2.57 | 76 |
| Garrett Crochett | 57.2 | 1.5 | 3.75 | 3.16 | 74 |
THE CASE FOR GARREtT CROCHET
Crochet is quietly putting together a strong season for the White Sox that is mostly going unnoticed outside of Chicago. Before Wednesday’s Tigers vs. Royals game, he led the American League in strikeouts with 74, and he’s having an incredible month of May.
At the beginning of the month, his ERA sat at an eye-popping 5.97 after getting shelled by the Phillies and Twins in April, two offenses that rank top ten in wRC+ against lefties. His next scheduled start is for Sunday against the Orioles, who lead Major League Baseball in slugging and wRC+ against southpaws.
If Crochet can notch a quality start and perhaps rack up some strikeouts, there’s a chance the 24-year-old will win AL Pitcher of the Month for May. He boasts the best ERA in the month at 0.39, with the next closest being Luis Gil of the Yankees at 0.74. Should he avoid a skunker against the Orioles on Sunday and win Pitcher of the Month, we’ll likely see his odds shift considerably.
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THE UPHILL BATTLE FOR CROCHET
Winning this award will certainly be challenging for the lefty ace and he has two things standing in his way. The team is dreadful, and he may not pitch enough innings to win. This is Crochet’s first year as a starter after pitching out of the pen his first three seasons in the league. Since the Sox aren’t a competitive ballclub, we may reach a point in the season where they just shut him down and preserve his arm for down the road. However, if he enters the Cy Young conversation, the Sox may be faced with a tough decision as innings start to mount.
Whether he pitches enough is open for debate. He undoubtedly needs to gain ground in the ERA category to win, and he’s been doing that this month. We’ve already seen an AL pitcher start slow and wind up winning this award. It was Robbie Ray in 2021.
At the end of May 2021, Ray was 16th in ERA (3.81) and 31st in FanGraphs WAR (0.2) in the AL. At season’s end, Ray was first in the American League in ERA (2.84) and fifth in FanGraphs WAR at 3.9. For reference, Crochet currently sits 23rd in the AL in ERA, right behind Ragans of the Royals, who ranks 22nd.
final thoughts on crochet
Ultimately, Crochet has a long way to go to win this award, it’s a long season and questions remain as to whether he will pitch enough. But there’s not much statistically separating Crochet and some of the top pitchers on the AL Cy Young odds boards. As of today, his expected ERA is better than Skubal, Burnes, and Ragans. If he notches his fifth win in May on Sunday, these odds are surely going to shrink if he wins Pitcher of the Month. At 70-1, this could be a fun dart throw to try and take down Skubal.
Best of luck betting AL CY Young Odds!
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